Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Semifinals

Alejandro Tabilo vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #71
62%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #96
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current Rank: #71 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #126 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #61 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2025-02-17)

Ignacio Buse

  • Current Rank: #96 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #105 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #136 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #177 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #230 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 57.4
ELO Rating: 788.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1694.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 376.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 88.8
Return Rating: 49.8

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 66.4
ELO Rating: 755.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 447.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) clay Rio 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Rio 141 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) clay Rio 63 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 126 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 144 min

Ignacio Buse
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-1) clay Rio 139 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Rio 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Igor Marcondes (2-1) clay Rio 162 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 154 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Rio, Brazil — a clay-court match at a 500-level tournament — pits Alejandro Tabilo against Ignacio Buse. The model favors Alejandro Tabilo (61.68% win probability) over Ignacio Buse (38.32%), with a predicted total of about 23.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo (rank 71) arrives with an Elo of 788.30 and a form index of 57.4; his cumulative tournament court time is 376 minutes and his surface strength index on clay is 6.53. Buse (rank 96) has a slightly lower Elo at 755.61 but a higher recent form index of 66.44; he is noticeably more fatigued after 447 minutes on court and posts a marginally stronger surface index of 7.13. The mean serve indices differ by more than five points (Tabilo 88.78 vs Buse 96.34), and the mean return indices show a large gap (Tabilo 49.84 vs Buse 90.18), which suggests Buse will be more aggressive on return while Tabilo will rely on serving quality less so than his opponent. Both players have been in strong tournament form: Tabilo is 3-0 in Rio, including two three-set matches and one straight-set win, with match durations ranging from 63 to 172 minutes. Buse is also 3-0, all wins by 2-1, and has played consistently long matches (139–162 minutes). The longer recent matches for Buse contribute to his higher fatigue number, which may matter late in rallies and decisive games on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay semifinal sits at an expected total of 10.57 — the predicted aces figure tempered by the slow surface. The double faults prediction is 4.47 expected double faults, reflecting clay’s tendency toward longer points and fatigue-induced errors. With Buse’s markedly higher serve index, predicted aces may skew toward him despite the surface reducing outright free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s higher Elo, slightly better freshness, and current winning momentum give him the edge in this matchup. Watch the return-versus-serve matchup: Buse’s superior return index versus Tabilo’s solid serving will be the key tactical battle determining who controls the crucial service games.

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