Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #42
58%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #76
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current Rank: #42 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #122 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #61 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2025-02-24)

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current Rank: #76 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #106 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #115 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #132 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #128 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 57.7
ELO Rating: 800.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1694.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 99.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 89.7
Return Rating: 52.6

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 769.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Santiago 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 184 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-0) clay Rio 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) clay Rio 172 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Rio 141 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) clay Santiago 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Rio 172 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) clay Rio 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-0) clay Rio 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clay-court match in Santiago (an ATP 250-level event) pits 42-ranked Alejandro Tabilo against 76-ranked Thiago Agustin Tirante. The model favors Tabilo to win (58.42% vs 41.58%), with a projected total of about 23.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo enters with the higher ranking (42) and a slightly superior Elo (800.84 vs 769.69). Both players show nearly identical form indices (Tabilo 57.68, Tirante 57.75), but fatigue is a clear differentiator: Tabilo has spent 99 minutes on court in the event versus Tirante’s 174 minutes, which could influence physical performance on clay. Surface strength indices are low and similar for both (Tabilo 6.63, Tirante 6.09), suggesting neither player is a clay specialist according to the proprietary metric. Serve and return profiles diverge. Tirante posts a notably higher mean serve index (96.66) than Tabilo (89.73) — a difference greater than 5 points — and an even larger advantage in mean return index (88.90 vs 52.58). That combination suggests Tirante can both serve effectively and apply strong return pressure. Over their last three matches, Tabilo has two wins and one loss, including a straight-sets win in Santiago and a long three-set loss in Rio. Tirante has also recorded two wins recently (including a 174-minute win in Santiago) and one loss to Tabilo in Rio; his recent schedule has been heavier and more physically demanding.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 16.86 total, while the predicted double faults total is roughly 5.74. On clay, slower speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace volumes and can increase expected double faults due to longer rallies and fatigue; this surface context supports a conservative aces prediction and a higher expected double faults figure. Tirante’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces somewhat, but clay and cumulative fatigue may blunt that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s edge comes from a higher ranking, marginally better Elo and markedly fresher legs in a physically demanding clay setting. The key factor to watch is Tirante’s return and how fatigue affects both players’ serving consistency — that duel will likely decide whether Tabilo’s slight favorite status holds.

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