Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Alex de Minaur vs Ugo Humbert: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
62%
VS

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #38
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-10)

Ugo Humbert

  • Current Rank: #38 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #37 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #22 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 75.8
ELO Rating: 4080.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1862.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 325.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.4
Clay: 31.3
Grass: 32.7
Serve Rating: 54.8
Return Rating: 34.3

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 63.0
ELO Rating: 1510.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 299.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Rotterdam 164 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Ugo Humbert
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Rotterdam 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Guy Den Ouden (2-0) hard Rotterdam 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-2) hard Montpellier 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Montpellier 72 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Ugo Humbert
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Rotterdam (Netherlands) is a hard‑court, ATP 500–level match between world No. 6 Alex de Minaur and No. 38 Ugo Humbert. The model favors Alex de Minaur to win (61.51% vs 38.49% for Humbert) with an expected total of about 23.37 games in the match.

Match Analysis

De Minaur arrives with the superior ranking (6) and stronger form index (75.77 vs 63.04). His Elo rating is also markedly higher (4080.22 vs 1510.39), and his surface strength index on hard courts (26.43) is greater than Humbert’s (13.03). Cumulative fatigue at this event is higher for de Minaur (325 minutes) than Humbert (299 minutes), driven in part by a long three‑set quarterfinal (164 minutes). Despite that workload, De Minaur has closed out his two earlier matches in straight sets and carried consistent wins through the draw. Humbert brings exceptional serving and returning profiles by the provided indices: his mean serve index (98.14) vastly exceeds de Minaur’s (54.78) and his mean return index (88.82) is also substantially higher than de Minaur’s (34.34); both differences exceed the 5‑point threshold and are notable. Humbert’s recent run in Rotterdam is strong—three wins including a victory over a high‑quality opponent—and his recent matches have been efficient in duration. Overall, this sets up a contrast: de Minaur’s higher ranking, form and Elo versus Humbert’s elite serve/return metrics in this dataset.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 10.57 combined, with a predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve rating. The expected double faults total is roughly 4.47 (expected double faults), reflecting a moderate risk on serve. On medium‑paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — the surface neither strongly inflates nor suppresses ace counts — but Humbert’s significantly higher serve index should lift the match’s ace total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s edge comes from superior rank, form index and Elo plus a better surface index on hard courts, which outweighs Humbert’s standout serve/return ratings in this projection. The key factor to watch is how effectively Humbert’s serving and returning translate into free points and whether de Minaur can sustain consistency under fatigue.

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