Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #52
28%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
72%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current Rank: #52 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #75 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #31 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #20 (2025-02-10)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #27 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #76 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 26.1
ELO Rating: 754.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 79.2
Return Rating: 23.3

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 86.7
ELO Rating: 2972.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1660.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.8
Clay: 23.7
Grass: 24.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Montpellier 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Hong Kong 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 at the Rotterdam 500-level event in the Netherlands is a hard-court clash between Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Bublik. The model favors Bublik, projecting him to win with a 71.68% probability versus 28.32% for Hurkacz, and expects a relatively short contest of about 23.94 total games.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz arrives ranked 52 with an Elo of 754.55, a form index of 26.07 and a surface strength index of 7.76; he shows a strong serve profile (mean serve index 79.20) but a modest return metric (mean return index 23.26). Bublik is the higher-ranked player at 10 with a far superior Elo (2972.61), carries a high form index of 86.71 and a surface strength index of 19.84. The difference in mean serve index (about 18.8 points) and in mean return index (about 64.5 points) both exceed 5 points, favoring Bublik emphatically on both serve and return metrics. Neither player brings tournament fatigue into this match. Over the last three matches on hard courts Hurkacz has one win (over Zizou Bergs) and two straight losses (to Ethan Quinn and Martin Damm), including a long three-set defeat at the Australian Open. Bublik’s recent sequence shows two convincing straight-set wins (Fucsovics, Etcheverry) followed by a loss to Alex de Minaur in the Australian Open Round of 16; his form index and Elo reflect greater consistency and firepower coming into Rotterdam.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate, with predicted aces totaling about 15.35 and an expected double faults count near 3.91. Hard courts typically produce more aces than clay but fewer than grass, so the predicted aces align with that balance. Given Bublik’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces while also influencing the double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s superior Elo, form index and much stronger serve-and-return profile give him the clear edge in this matchup. Watch Bublik’s serve and how effectively Hurkacz can hold serve under pressure — that will be the decisive factor.

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