Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jaume Munar vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jaume Munar

Rank: #37
36%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Jaume Munar

  • Current Rank: #37 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #36 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #48 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #66 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #53 (2025-02-10)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #27 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #76 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1446.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 68.1
Return Rating: 50.6

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 79.5
ELO Rating: 2972.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.8
Clay: 23.7
Grass: 24.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Jaume Munar
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) hard Rotterdam 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-0) hard Rotterdam 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 90 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Rotterdam 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jaume Munar
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals at Rotterdam (Netherlands), indoor hard courts, ATP 500-level event. Alexander Bublik is the model pick to advance with a 64.39% probability against Jaume Munar (35.61%). The match is expected to be relatively short on games, with a predicted total of 23.73 games.

Match Analysis

Bublik arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 10) with superior form (79.49 vs Munar’s 60.10) and a far higher Elo (2972.61 vs 1446.47). He also carries greater cumulative court time this week (267 vs 223 minutes). Munar, ranked 37, has a solid mean serve index (68.11) and lower surface strength index (11.75) compared with Bublik’s 19.84; neither shows an overwhelmingly dominant hard-court surface profile by those surface-strength numbers. The mean serve index gap between them is large (about 30 points), and the mean return index gap is likewise substantial (roughly 37 points), both favoring Bublik — this will shape the dynamics on serve and return. Recent form: both players have won two of their last three matches at hard-court events. Munar beat Khachanov in a 3-set Rotterdam match and dispatched Kjaer in straight sets, but he was beaten in straight sets by Ruud at the Australian Open. Bublik has beaten Struff and Hurkacz in Rotterdam (both three-set wins) and suffered a straight-sets loss to de Minaur in Australia. Both have been through long matches this swing, with Bublik slightly more taxed in total minutes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total and the double faults prediction is 6.37 total. On this medium-paced hard court, predicted aces will be moderate — more than clay but fewer than grass — and expected double faults reflect Bublik’s aggressive serving style. Given Bublik’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to account for the bulk of the predicted aces while also contributing to a portion of the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s serving and returning edge, plus higher form and Elo, give him the clear projected advantage. A key factor to watch is Bublik’s serve efficiency: if he converts free points without excessive double faults, he should control the match.

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