Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexander Bublik vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
67%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #65
33%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #24 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #62 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #82 (2025-03-03)

Vit Kopriva

  • Current Rank: #65 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #101 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #89 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #86 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #119 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 49.4
ELO Rating: 2845.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.6
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 24.0
Serve Rating: 79.6
Return Rating: 32.6

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 707.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 341.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) hard Dubai 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) hard Dubai 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 54 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Rotterdam 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Rotterdam 125 min

Vit Kopriva
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (2-0) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Indian Wells 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) hard Indian Wells 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-2) clay Santiago 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 237 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard court), Round of 64 in a Masters 1000 event, Alexander Bublik is forecast to advance against Vit Kopriva. The model gives Bublik a 66.52% chance to win versus 33.48% for Kopriva, with a predicted total of about 23.47 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is lopsided by ranking and Elo: Bublik sits at No. 10 with an Elo of 2845.74, while Kopriva is ranked 65 with an Elo of 707.62. Bublik shows a healthier surface strength index (16.58 versus Kopriva’s 5.55) and arrives with zero minutes of tournament fatigue, whereas Kopriva carries 341 minutes on court this week. The serve/return profiles diverge sharply — Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.78) is substantially higher than Bublik’s (79.61), a difference greater than 5 points that favors Kopriva’s serving potency. Conversely, Kopriva’s mean return index (92.83) hugely outstrips Bublik’s (32.57), another >5-point gap that suggests Kopriva can be dangerous on return if his energy holds up. Form-wise, Bublik’s recent sequence on hard shows two defeats (to Griekspoor and Auger-Aliassime) and a win over Struff, with match times relatively short. Kopriva has mixed results at Indian Wells: wins over Michael Zheng (129 minutes) and Rei Sakamoto, and a loss to Dalibor Svrcina; his week has been more physically demanding. Those recent matches underline Bublik’s higher-level results and Kopriva’s deeper court time this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction leans toward a moderate tally on hard courts, with predicted aces at about 12.95 for the match. Given Kopriva’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces; the mean serve gap supports that. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of roughly 4.17, reflecting some risk on second serves for both players on a medium-paced hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s ranking, Elo advantage and fresher legs give him the edge in this projection, despite Kopriva’s big-serve and strong return indices. The key factor to watch: Kopriva’s serve efficiency and whether his accumulated fatigue blunts the very high serve/return numbers that make him a threat.

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