Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Alexander Shevchenko vs Sho Shimabukuro: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #92
54%
VS

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #130
46%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Alexander Shevchenko

Ranking Trends

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current Rank: #92 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #95 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #91 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #103 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #98 (2025-03-03)

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current Rank: #130 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #147 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #198 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #189 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #192 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 682.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 70.1
Return Rating: 61.6

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 63.8
ELO Rating: 495.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 269.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Alexander Shevchenko
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Dubai 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Dubai 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Dubai 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Landaluce (2-1) hard Indian Wells 164 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Indian Wells 105 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Acapulco 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Acapulco 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (1-0) hard Acapulco 16 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Shevchenko
vs
0
Sho Shimabukuro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (CA) in the round of 128 on outdoor hard courts of a Masters 1000 event, this matchup pits Alexander Shevchenko against Sho Shimabukuro. The model gives Shevchenko the narrow edge — 54.28% to win against Shimabukuro’s 45.72% — with a projected total of about 22.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shevchenko arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 92) with a substantially stronger Elo (682.37) compared with Shimabukuro (rank 130, Elo 495.19). He posts a modest form index (38.3) and virtually no tournament fatigue (0 minutes), while Shimabukuro shows a better recent form index (63.8) but carries 269 minutes of on-court time so far at this event. Surface strength indices are low for both (Shevchenko 3.74, Shimabukuro 5.39), suggesting neither has a pronounced hard-court specialty. There are large gaps in serving and returning: Shimabukuro’s mean serve index (96.63) is about 26.6 points higher than Shevchenko’s (70.06), and his mean return index (87.11) exceeds Shevchenko’s (61.58) by roughly 25.5 points — both differences are significant and will shape the tactics. Across the last three matches Shevchenko is 1-2: a straight-sets win over Basilashvili followed by losses to Quentin Halys and Karen Khachanov in Dubai, with match lengths ranging from 77 to 132 minutes. Shimabukuro is 2-1 in his last three, winning two matches at Indian Wells (164 and 105 minutes) after a loss to Yibing Wu in Acapulco. The contrast is clear: Shevchenko offers freshness and higher season Elo, while Shimabukuro brings momentum and a heavy workload in the draw.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest sits at about 10.28 total aces, with an expected double faults figure of roughly 3.75. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — more than clay but below grass — and the expected double faults reflect a typical level under these conditions. Given Shimabukuro’s markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to supply a disproportionate share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shevchenko’s edge stems from superior ranking, higher Elo and the freshness advantage, which just outweighs Shimabukuro’s serving firepower and recent form in the model. The key factor to watch will be whether Shimabukuro’s big serve can convert free points without being blunted by fatigue and Shevchenko’s returning.

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