Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
56%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
44%
Expected Total Games: 36.3
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2025-01-13)

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #21 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #31 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 97.1
ELO Rating: 5105.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2263.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.9
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 75.6
Return Rating: 63.7

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 89.3
ELO Rating: 2070.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 41.8
Grass: 45.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 97.7

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-1) hard Paris 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Paris 150 min

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Adelaide 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Zverev
vs
2
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the 2026 Australian Open, Alexander Zverev faces Francisco Cerundolo on hard courts, a surface that balances power and precision. Zverev is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 56.13%, while Cerundolo has a 43.87% chance of success. The match is expected to feature approximately 36 total games.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev, ranked 3rd in the world, possesses a strong form index of 97.11 and an Elo rating of 5105. His cumulative fatigue stands at 522 minutes, indicating a similar workload to Cerundolo. Zverev's surface strength index of 35.93 reflects his solid performance on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 75.59 is crucial in this matchup. In contrast, Francisco Cerundolo, ranked 20th, has a form index of 89.35 and an Elo rating of 2070. His serve and return indices are impressive, with a mean serve index of 97.76 and a mean return index of 97.74, showcasing his capabilities on this surface. The notable difference of over 5 points in their mean serve index could favor Zverev if he can effectively leverage his serve. Both players head into this match with strong recent performances, each winning their last three matches convincingly. Zverev has been dominant, winning all of his last three matches with a score of 3-1, while Cerundolo has shown impressive form, winning all his matches in straight sets. This consistency sets the stage for a competitive encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.3 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces and 4.47 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which typically supports a moderate number of aces, both players may benefit from their serving capabilities. Zverev's higher mean serve index suggests he might lead in aces prediction, while the expected double faults could add unpredictability to the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zverev's edge in ranking, experience, and recent match performance gives him a favorable outlook against Cerundolo. A key factor to monitor will be Zverev's ability to capitalize on his serve, which could significantly impact the match's flow and outcome.

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