Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Jaime Faria vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jaime Faria

Rank: #151
23%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
77%
Expected Total Games: 37.5
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Jaime Faria

  • Current Rank: #151 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #127 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #119 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #105 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #125 (2025-01-13)

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #14 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #15 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Jaime Faria

Form Index: 99.7
ELO Rating: 513.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.4
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 50.9
Return Rating: 55.9

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 71.1
ELO Rating: 2510.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1851.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.2
Clay: 57.9
Grass: 60.1
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Jaime Faria
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Blockx (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Hassan (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luka Mikrut (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tibo Colson (1-2) hard Brussels 90 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 163 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Hong Kong 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-1) hard Hong Kong 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Paris 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jaime Faria
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 64 matchup at the Australian Open features Jaime Faria facing off against Andrey Rublev on hard courts in Australia. With a significant disparity in their rankings and recent performances, Rublev is predicted to win with a probability of 76.79%, while Faria has a 23.21% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 37.53.

Match Analysis

Andrey Rublev enters this match ranked 14th in the world with an Elo rating of 2510.02, showcasing his experience and consistency on the tour. His form index of 71.14 reflects a solid performance level, albeit with some recent fluctuations evidenced by a mixed bag of results in his last three matches. Rublev's fatigue level of 174 minutes is significantly lower than Faria's, suggesting he is in fresher condition. Faria, ranked 151st, has an Elo rating of 513.89 and a form index of 99.69, indicating a strong recent performance despite his lower ranking. His cumulative fatigue of 696 minutes from the tournament could impact his performance against a seasoned opponent. The significant difference in their mean serve indexes (Rublev at 97.94 and Faria at 50.87) highlights Rublev's prowess in serving, while the return index also favors Rublev (94.53 vs. Faria's 55.93), suggesting he is likely to be more effective in both serving and returning. Faria's recent performances show a strong winning streak with victories in his last three matches, but he faced lower-ranked opponents, which may not provide a full gauge of his abilities against top-tier competition.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.5 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.06 aces and 5.63 double faults. Given that hard courts tend to balance the playing field between power servers and strong returners, the predicted aces count is notable, especially with Rublev’s superior serve rating likely contributing to a higher number of aces. The expected double faults prediction indicates that both players might face challenges in maintaining consistency under pressure, but Rublev’s stronger serve should mitigate this risk more effectively than Faria.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Andrey Rublev is favored to win this match due to his significantly higher rank, superior serve and return metrics, and lower fatigue levels. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Faria can handle Rublev's powerful serves and whether he can capitalize on any opportunities during the match.

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