Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Arthur Fils vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fils

Rank: #32
42%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #9
58%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #32 (2026-03-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2025-03-03)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #9 (2026-03-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #5 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #27 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #18 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 1438.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1745.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 70.4
Return Rating: 45.6

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 66.9
ELO Rating: 3806.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 283.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.6
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) hard Indian Wells 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Doha 50 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) hard Doha 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Doha 89 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Indian Wells 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Indian Wells 136 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Dubai 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Dubai 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Dubai 81 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, round of 16 on hard courts in a Masters 1000 event, Felix Auger-Aliassime is narrowly favoured to progress. The model gives Felix a 58.46% chance to win against Arthur Fils (41.54%), with a projected total of about 23.52 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 9) with a markedly superior Elo (3806.19) versus Fils (rank 32, Elo 1438.66). Felix’s form index (66.86) also sits above Fils’s (57.64). Fatigue is an important angle: Felix has logged 283 minutes in the event so far compared with Fils’s 148 minutes, reflecting more grueling three-set battles in earlier rounds. On hard courts Felix’s surface strength index (26.60) is higher than Fils’s (11.24), though neither figure is extreme. Serve and return profiles point to a clear advantage for Felix. His mean serve index (98.57) exceeds Fils’s (70.36) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (87.28) likewise beats Fils’s (45.56) by a sizeable margin — both gaps are significant and should determine key momentum swings. Over the last three matches Fils has steady recent form at Indian Wells with straight-set wins over Dino Prizmic and Marton Fucsovics after a loss to Carlos Alcaraz in Doha. Felix reached this stage via two long three-set wins (over Gael Monfils and Gabriel Diallo) and a prior loss to Daniil Medvedev in Dubai, indicating strong match toughness but higher court time.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this fixture is about 15.91 total, and the predicted aces skew toward Felix given his very high serve index. Expected double faults are roughly 5.94 for the match. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so this surface produces a moderate ace tally compared with grass or clay; Felix’s elite serve rating is likely to lift the predicted aces count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s combination of superior Elo, elite serving and much stronger return ratings gives him the edge despite heavier minutes at the event. The key factor to watch is whether Fils can neutralize Felix’s serve early and force longer return exchanges; if not, Felix’s serve/return superiority should decide the tie.

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