Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
41%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #16
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #42 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2025-02-17)

Jakub Mensik

  • Current Rank: #16 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #19 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #16 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #19 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 55.7
ELO Rating: 1310.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1739.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 308.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 71.0
Return Rating: 56.0

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 81.5
ELO Rating: 2259.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 335.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 17.0
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Doha 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Doha 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Doha 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 68 min

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (2-1) hard Doha 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Doha 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-1) hard Doha 138 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
1
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Doha, Qatar, on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event pits Arthur Fils against Jakub Mensik. The model favors Mensik to win (59.18%) over Fils (40.82%), with a predicted total of about 23.55 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fils comes in ranked 42 with a solid recent form index of 55.75 and an Elo of 1310.32. He has logged 308 minutes on court during the tournament and a surface strength index of 10.27, suggesting modest hard-court comfort. Mensik, ranked 16, carries a much higher form index (81.53) and an Elo of 2258.96, but slightly more fatigue at 335 minutes. His surface strength index (19.28) is higher than Fils’s, indicating stronger hard-court suitability in this matchup. There are notable serving and returning gaps: Mensik’s mean serve index (97.50) is substantially higher than Fils’s (70.95), and his mean return index (89.61) far exceeds Fils’s (56.04). Those differences (>5 points) point to Mensik’s advantage both on serve and when returning. Over the last three matches at Doha, Fils is unbeaten, taking straight sets in two tighter 89-minute wins and a three-set 130-minute match. Mensik is also 3-0 in the event, including a 2-1 win over Jannik Sinner and two other victories with match times of 131, 66, and 138 minutes, showing consistency against varied opponents.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 10.06 for the match, with an expected double faults total around 5.63. On Doha’s medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate compared with faster surfaces; expected double faults are also in a typical range for baseline-serving contests. Given Mensik’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the ace count in this matchup.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s superior form, Elo and marked edges in both serve and return metrics give him the modeling advantage. The key factor to watch will be whether Fils can neutralize Mensik’s serve and create return pressure early; if he fails, Mensik’s service dominance should decide the match.

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