Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
63%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current Rank: #21 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #17 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #21 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #25 (2025-02-17)

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #42 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 44.9
ELO Rating: 1859.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 151.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 15.8
Grass: 18.2
Serve Rating: 81.8
Return Rating: 45.4

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1223.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 219.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Doha 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Doha 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-1) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Brisbane 144 min

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Doha 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Doha 130 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinal action in Doha, Qatar at a 500-level hard-court event pits Jiri Lehecka against Arthur Fils. The model favors Jiri Lehecka to win (62.73% probability) over Arthur Fils (37.27%), with an expected total of roughly 23.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Lehecka (rank 21) arrives with a higher Elo (1859.62) than Fils (rank 42, Elo 1222.99) and has logged 151 minutes on court in Doha compared with Fils’ 219 minutes, so Lehecka has the lower cumulative fatigue. Form indices tell a different story: Fils has a stronger form index (59.83) versus Lehecka’s 44.93, while surface strength indices are similar and small (Lehecka 11.32, Fils 12.24). The serving and returning profiles diverge sharply — Fils’ mean serve index (97.43) is substantially higher than Lehecka’s (81.83), and Fils also posts a much stronger mean return index (90.15) versus Lehecka’s 45.37; both differences exceed 5 points and are notable matchup factors. Over their last three matches at hard courts, Lehecka has won his two Doha matches in straight sets (versus Bergs and Brooksby) after a long loss at the Australian Open. Fils has also won two in Doha (including a three-set match against Majchrzak) and lost earlier in Rotterdam to Alex de Minaur. Both players come in with recent winning momentum at this tournament, but Fils’ heavier minutes and the contrasting serve/return metrics frame this as a clash of styles.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total; the predicted aces lean toward Fils given his markedly higher serve index. Expected double faults are 6.37 for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — the surface supports both service aggression and return play — and expected double faults reflect some risk from aggressive serving. Fils’ superior serve rating is likely to drive a larger share of the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s edge in ranking, Elo and lower cumulative fatigue underpin the prediction in his favor, despite Fils’ stronger form and standout serve/return indices. The key factor to watch is how Lehecka copes with Fils’ serve and whether Fils’ return strength translates into breaks early in sets.

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