Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Ben Shelton vs Dane Sweeny: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
75%
VS

Dane Sweeny

Rank: #182
25%
Expected Total Games: 37.3
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #6 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #13 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #20 (2025-01-13)

Dane Sweeny

  • Current Rank: #182 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #252 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #469 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #322 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 64.2
ELO Rating: 3844.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1734.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.5
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 30.8
Serve Rating: 81.1
Return Rating: 54.5

Dane Sweeny

Form Index: 95.2
ELO Rating: 510.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 92.7

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Auckland 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) hard Paris 95 min

Dane Sweeny
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefano Travaglia (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jerome Kym (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-1) hard Brisbane 146 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Dane Sweeny
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Ben Shelton faces Dane Sweeny on hard courts in Australia. Given their recent performances and statistics, Shelton is predicted to win with a probability of 74.84%, while Sweeny has a 25.16% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 8th, boasts a strong form index of 64.19 and an impressive Elo rating of 3844.80. His cumulative fatigue of 174 minutes indicates a manageable physical condition as he progresses through the tournament. Shelton's surface strength index stands at 23.48, showcasing his adaptability on hard courts. In contrast, Dane Sweeny, ranked 182, has a form index of 95.20 but a much lower Elo rating of 510.35, indicating a significant disparity in overall experience and performance level. Sweeny's cumulative fatigue is notably higher at 522 minutes, which could affect his stamina in longer rallies. Shelton’s mean serve index of 81.08 is also significantly higher than Sweeny’s 94.39, highlighting his advantage in serving. In their last three matches, Shelton recorded a decisive victory against Ugo Humbert, winning all sets, while his earlier match against Sebastian Baez resulted in a loss. Conversely, Sweeny has been in good form, winning all three of his recent matches against notable opponents, including Gael Monfils. His victories suggest he is capable of rising to the occasion, yet the step up in competition against a top-10 player like Shelton will test his resilience.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.3 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see around 13.22 aces, along with an estimated 4.4 double faults. Playing on hard courts typically produces a balanced number of aces, favoring both powerful servers and strong returners. Given Shelton's higher mean serve index, he may contribute significantly more to the aces prediction, while Sweeny’s lower serve rating could result in a higher likelihood of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's edge in rank, serve strength, and recent performance provides him with a strong advantage heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be his serving game, as his ability to dominate on serve could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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