Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Ben Shelton: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #69
36%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1034.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 244.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 74.7
Return Rating: 67.5

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 3844.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 257.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 32.1
Grass: 32.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Dallas 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Dallas 124 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Montpellier 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Adelaide 96 min

Ben Shelton

  • Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-1) hard Dallas 160 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) hard Dallas 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Dallas, TX is a hard-court clash at a 500-level event between Miomir Kecmanovic and Ben Shelton. The model favors Ben Shelton to win (64.12%) over Miomir Kecmanovic (35.88%), with an expected total of about 23.57 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic arrives ranked 69 with a form index of 41.4 and an Elo of 1034; his cumulative tournament fatigue is 244 minutes and his surface strength index on hard courts is 6.90. Shelton is the higher-ranked player at 9, carrying a form index of 79.18 and a substantially higher Elo of 3844.93; his fatigue is slightly higher at 257 minutes and his hard-court surface strength index is 25.63. There is a pronounced gap in serving and returning: Shelton’s mean serve index (98.12) exceeds Kecmanovic’s (74.72) by over 23 points, and his mean return index (89.30) is roughly 21.8 points higher — both notable edges that should influence hold/break dynamics. Over the last three matches Kecmanovic has shown resilience in Dallas with two straight 2-1 wins (against Tommy Paul and Sho Shimabukuro) after a 1-2 loss in Montpellier to Pablo Carreño Busta; his results indicate competitiveness but longer matches (120–124 minutes) and some recent wear. Shelton has won his two Dallas matches (2-1 over Mannarino and 2-0 over Diallo) following a heavy 0-3 loss to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open; his recent wins include a very long 160-minute match and a shorter 97-minute match, suggesting both the ability to grind and to close quickly.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is elevated: the model’s predicted aces total is 12.97. Given hard courts’ medium pace and consistent bounce, the predicted aces reflect a balance between power and returnability; the predicted aces number aligns with that. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 5.16. With Shelton’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the aces, which will influence the overall aces prediction and could also affect the distribution of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Shelton’s superior serve and return metrics, higher form and Elo give him the edge in this quarterfinal. The key factor to watch is whether Kecmanovic can neutralize Shelton’s serve early; breaking serve even once would drastically change the projected game count.

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