Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Juncheng Shang: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #75
42%
VS

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #311
58%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Juncheng Shang

Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 62.2
ELO Rating: 886.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 74.9
Return Rating: 80.0

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 70.6
ELO Rating: 334.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 1.0
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 98.7
Return Rating: 94.2

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Hong Kong 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Paris 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Paris 122 min

Juncheng Shang

  • Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Hong Kong 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Hong Kong 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Shanghai 147 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Juncheng Shang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, Botic van de Zandschulp faces off against Juncheng Shang on hard courts. With a predicted winner of Juncheng Shang, he holds a winning probability of 57.87%, while Botic van de Zandschulp stands at 42.13%. The match is expected to be competitive, with an anticipated total of 38.01 games played.

Match Analysis

Botic van de Zandschulp, ranked 75th, showcases a form index of 62.16 and an Elo rating of 886.72. He has a surface strength index of 6.95, indicating his reasonable performance on hard courts, though he has accumulated significant fatigue of 174 minutes in the current tournament. His mean serve index sits at 74.90, and he has a mean return index of 79.98, revealing that he is a strong returner. Conversely, Juncheng Shang is ranked 311 with a form index of 70.63 and a lower Elo rating of 334.63. His surface strength index is slightly less at 5.69, but his mean serve index is notably high at 98.72, which gives him a significant advantage in serving. Moreover, Shang's mean return index of 94.21 points to his exceptional ability to challenge opponents' serves. In their recent performances, van de Zandschulp won his last match against Brandon Nakashima but suffered a loss to Alexander Bublik in Hong Kong before that. Shang, on the other hand, had a strong victory over Roberto Bautista Agut in his last match, demonstrating his current form despite an earlier defeat to the same Alexander Bublik. This pattern suggests that Shang is gaining momentum as the tournament progresses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to feature around 16.88 expected aces, with 5.74 expected double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances both powerful serves and solid returns, the expected aces prediction reflects the capacity of both players to serve effectively. Notably, Shang's higher mean serve index indicates he may contribute more to the ace count, while the moderate expected double faults could affect the flow of the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Juncheng Shang's edge in serve quality and recent form positions him favorably against Botic van de Zandschulp. The ability to capitalize on serve opportunities will be a key factor to watch, as Shang's powerful serve may put pressure on van de Zandschulp's return game.

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