Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Brandon Nakashima vs Patrick Kypson: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #29
70%
VS

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #103
30%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 45.2
ELO Rating: 1285.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 83.8
Return Rating: 23.3

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 48.4
ELO Rating: 596.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima

  • Last Match: vs Elias Ymer (2-0) hard Acapulco 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (0-2) hard Delray Beach 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Delray Beach 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Dallas 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Dallas 68 min

Patrick Kypson

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) hard Acapulco 159 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (2-0) hard Acapulco 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Delray Beach 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Dallas 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jack Pinnington Jones (1-2) hard Dallas 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Patrick Kypson
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 16 matchup in Acapulco (hard, ATP 500-level) pits Brandon Nakashima against Patrick Kypson. The model favors Brandon Nakashima to win (70.32% vs 29.68% for Kypson) with a predicted total of about 23.12 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Nakashima arrives with the stronger ranking (29 vs 103) and a substantially higher Elo rating (1285.09 vs 596.23). He is considerably fresher in this event, having accumulated 79 minutes on court compared with Kypson’s 223 minutes, and carries a slightly better hard-court surface strength index (7.48 vs 4.78). Nakashima’s mean serve index is high (83.81) while his mean return index is low (23.35), indicating his game leans more on service holds and baseline consistency on hard courts. Kypson presents a contrasting profile: a very high mean serve index (98.62) and an outstanding mean return index (89.78), both more than 5 points different from Nakashima’s corresponding figures—this is a notable discrepancy on both serve and return. Kypson’s form index (48.45) is marginally higher than Nakashima’s (45.21), but his cumulative fatigue from long matches in this tournament could blunt that edge. Recent form for both shows two wins and one loss in their last three matches: Nakashima beat Elias Ymer and Marin Čilić and lost to Coleman Wong; Kypson beat Alex de Minaur and Coleman Wong but fell to Terence Atmane. Kypson’s most recent match was unusually long (159 minutes), contributing to his higher fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is relatively high with predicted aces around 21.47, reflecting Kypson’s very strong serving profile on a medium-paced hard court. The expected double faults tally is 5.92, a modest figure given the aggressive serving tendencies. Given Kypson’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive the bulk of the predicted aces, while Nakashima’s steadier serve profile should keep his own double faults in check.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.5 Most likely: 21 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s higher rank, much stronger Elo and markedly lower fatigue underpin the projected advantage. The key factor to watch is Kypson’s serve-return combination: if his serving remains dominant despite the heavy minutes he’s logged, he can force a very different outcome.

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