Indian Wells
CA, U.S.A.
Hard
Masters 1000
Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults
Carlos Alcaraz
Rank: #1
72%
VS
Casper Ruud
Rank: #13
28%
Expected Total Games:
22.4
Predicted Winner:
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking Trends
Carlos Alcaraz
- Current Rank: #1 (2026-03-02)
- 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-12-01)
- 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-08-25)
- 9 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-26)
- 12 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-03)
Casper Ruud
- Current Rank: #13 (2026-03-02)
- 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-12-01)
- 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-08-25)
- 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-05-26)
- 12 Months Ago: #5 (2025-03-03)
Player Metrics
Carlos Alcaraz
Form Index:
64.9
ELO Rating:
12050.0
Glicko2 Rating:
2211.1
Current Fatigue (minutes):
204.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
100.0
Clay:
100.0
Grass:
100.0
Serve Rating:
55.1
Return Rating:
53.8
Casper Ruud
Form Index:
53.9
ELO Rating:
2414.1
Glicko2 Rating:
1902.1
Current Fatigue (minutes):
206.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
14.5
Clay:
22.3
Grass:
23.9
Serve Rating:
97.5
Return Rating:
86.4
Recent Matches
Carlos Alcaraz
- Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) hard Indian Wells 138 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-0) hard Indian Wells 66 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Doha 50 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) hard Doha 122 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) hard Doha 146 min
Casper Ruud
- Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (2-1) hard Indian Wells 120 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) hard Indian Wells 86 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Acapulco 125 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Delray Beach 126 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Delray Beach 142 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
At Indian Wells in California, the Masters 1000 Round of 16 on hard court pits World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz against No. 13 Casper Ruud. The model favors Alcaraz (71.96%) over Ruud (28.04%), with a predicted total of about 22.4 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets finish with relatively few service breaks overall.
Match Analysis
The numbers present a clear contrast. Alcaraz arrives as the top-ranked player with an Elo of 12,050, a form index of 64.9 and a perfect surface strength index of 100, while Ruud is ranked 13 with a form index of 53.9 and a much lower surface strength index (14.5). Cumulative fatigue on court in the event is nearly identical (Alcaraz 204 minutes, Ruud 206), so recent workload should be a wash.
Serve and return profiles diverge sharply: Ruud posts a mean serve index of 97.53 versus Alcaraz’s 55.13 — a difference well over 5 points — and also shows a higher mean return index (86.40) compared with Alcaraz (53.82), again a large gap. These contrasts imply Ruud’s game metrics are skewed toward premium serving and returning in the dataset provided, while Alcaraz’s edge is reflected in rank, Elo and surface adaptability. Over their last three matches, Alcaraz is unbeaten, closing wins in Doha and two matches at Indian Wells (match times: 50, 66, 138 minutes), whereas Ruud won two matches at Indian Wells after a loss in Acapulco (durations: 125, 86, 120 minutes), showing resilience but some recent inconsistency.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
22.4
Most likely outcome: 22 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction for the match is about 8.89 total, and the predicted double faults total is roughly 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court — which yields a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay — those predicted aces are consistent with one player carrying a much higher serve index. Given Ruud’s significantly stronger serve rating in the data, he is likely to contribute a bulk of the aces, while the expected double faults suggest both players will have occasional service hiccups.
Expected Total Aces
8.9
Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
6.4
Most likely: 6 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Final Prediction
Alcaraz’s superior ranking, Elo and perfect hard-court strength give him the projected edge despite Ruud’s strong serve and return metrics in the dataset. The key factor to watch will be whether Ruud’s serving can shorten points and force errors before Alcaraz can impose his all-court game.
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