Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
82%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #101
18%
Expected Total Games: 35.3
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 77.8
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2201.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 51.3
Return Rating: 52.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 58.8
ELO Rating: 631.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.3
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 16.5
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 93.6

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Adam Walton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Tokio 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Last Match: vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Brisbane 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Paris 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Paris 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) hard Brussels 97 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz is set to face Yannick Hanfmann on hard courts in Australia. Alcaraz, currently ranked No. 1, is heavily favored to win, with an 82.16% probability of victory compared to Hanfmann's 17.84%. The match is expected to feature approximately 35.32 games, indicating a potentially competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts an impressive form index of 77.78 and an Elo rating of 12050, highlighting his status as the top player. His cumulative fatigue stands at 174 minutes, but his surface strength index of 100 indicates his prowess on hard courts. In contrast, Yannick Hanfmann ranks 101st with a form index of 58.83 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 630.99. His surface strength index of 22.29 suggests he struggles more on hard courts. Notably, Alcaraz's mean serve index is 51.30, while Hanfmann's is remarkably higher at 97.98, presenting a significant gap that could influence their serving dynamics. However, Alcaraz's mean return index (52.91) is higher than Hanfmann's (93.64), indicating that he may excel at returning Hanfmann's serves. In their recent performances, Alcaraz has shown strong form, winning two out of his last three matches, including a commanding victory in his last match against Adam Walton. His only recent loss came against Cameron Norrie in a tightly contested match, where he dropped two sets. Conversely, Hanfmann has also won two of his last three matches, but his victory against Zachary Svajda was marked by his inconsistent performances prior, where he lost to Terence Atmane and Jacob Fearnley.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.3 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is 15.35, while the predicted double faults stand at 3.91. Given the hard court surface, which balances the capabilities of both powerful servers and strong returners, these figures suggest a moderately high ace count. Hanfmann's significantly higher mean serve index could contribute to a greater number of aces, while both players' return capabilities will also play a crucial role in determining the accuracy of these predictions.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior rank, form, and return capabilities give him a distinct advantage in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how effectively he can handle Hanfmann's serve, especially given the latter's strong serve statistics. If Alcaraz can neutralize Hanfmann's serve, he is likely to secure a straightforward victory.

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