Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev enters as the higher-ranked player (No. 11) with an Elo of 2469.7 and a form index of 61.17; he also arrives with zero cumulative fatigue at this event and a surface strength index (13.45) that edges out Tabilo’s (7.49). Tabilo is ranked 42 with a similar form index (60.50) but a much lower Elo (819.86) and 58 minutes of tournament fatigue. The contrast in the serving and returning profiles is notable: Tabilo’s mean serve index (99.16) substantially exceeds Medvedev’s (74.60) by more than 5 points, and Tabilo’s mean return index (90.23) likewise outpaces Medvedev’s return (53.24) by a wide margin. Those gaps suggest Tabilo can produce high-impact service games and return aggression, but the broader ratings advantage lies with Medvedev. Recent form underpins the prediction: Medvedev arrives off three straight hard-court wins in Dubai, all in straight sets (matches of 83, 56 and 73 minutes), showing clean, efficient performances. Tabilo won his opening Indian Wells match in 58 minutes and has mixed results from Santiago (a long 127-minute win and an 81-minute loss), which helps explain the current fatigue tally. Their recent results highlight Medvedev’s consistency on hard courts versus Tabilo’s volatility.