Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng Shang: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
62%
VS

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #259
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #11 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-17)

Juncheng Shang

  • Current Rank: #259 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #253 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #108 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #71 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 45.2
ELO Rating: 2468.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1995.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.9
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 72.1
Return Rating: 56.5

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 42.4
ELO Rating: 332.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 1.2
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Juncheng Shang
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Hong Kong 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Hong Kong 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Juncheng Shang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Doha, Qatar — Round of 32 on hard court at an ATP 500 event sets up a clash between Daniil Medvedev and Juncheng Shang. The model favors Daniil Medvedev as the projected winner (61.77% vs 38.23%) with an expected total of about 23.11 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Medvedev enters ranked 11 with an Elo of 2468.23 and a form index of 45.20; his surface strength index on hard is 14.94 and cumulative fatigue is 0.0 minutes. Shang is ranked 259 with an Elo of 332.36 and a form index of 42.41; his surface strength index is 5.65 and fatigue is also 0.0. There is a substantial difference in serving and returning profiles: Shang’s mean serve index (98.39) exceeds Medvedev’s (72.14) by over 26 points, and Shang’s mean return index (89.76) is higher than Medvedev’s (56.50) by more than 33 points — both differences are notable and likely to shape many service games. Recent match patterns show Medvedev with mixed results: a win two matches ago followed by consecutive losses in deeper draws, including long matches on hard courts. Shang’s last three results are also mixed: a notable victory (against a higher-ranked opponent) sandwiched between defeats, with several long matches at Grand Slam level. Both players have been tested at similar match durations recently and arrive without additional tournament fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.86 total, while the double faults prediction is 5.74 total. On the medium-paced hard courts in Doha, these predicted aces are consistent with a surface that balances power and return; predicted aces are elevated in part because Shang’s serve index is substantially higher, which should increase the ace count. The expected double faults remain moderate, with the stronger server likely to keep risky second serves lower but not eliminate them.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s higher rank and substantially superior Elo rating give him the edge in the projection despite Shang’s standout serve and return metrics. Key factor to watch: how effectively Shang’s big-serve/return profile converts free points and whether Medvedev can neutralize that advantage with his baseline control and experience in longer hard-court exchanges.

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