Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Daniil Medvedev vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #12
69%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #85
31%
Expected Total Games: 37.3
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 86.1
ELO Rating: 2710.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2007.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 21.0
Serve Rating: 73.4
Return Rating: 53.8

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 76.2
ELO Rating: 797.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.8
Clay: 21.9
Grass: 16.5
Serve Rating: 98.9
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev

  • Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Brisbane 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Brisbane 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Brisbane 60 min

Quentin Halys

  • Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Adelaide 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Adelaide 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Quentin Halys
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Daniil Medvedev and Quentin Halys at the Australian Open marks a significant clash in the Round of 64 on hard courts. With Medvedev ranked 12th and Halys at 85th, the prediction favors Medvedev with a 69.29% probability of winning compared to Halys's 30.71%. The expected total number of games is approximately 37.3, indicating a competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev boasts a strong form index of 86.12 and an Elo rating of 2710.18, reflecting his high competitive level. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 174 minutes, indicating he has been tested but remains relatively fresh. Medvedev's surface strength index of 13.66 underscores his capabilities on hard courts, and his mean serve index of 73.35 is solid. In contrast, Quentin Halys, ranked 85th, has a form index of 76.21 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 797.48, suggesting a gap in overall performance. Halys's mean serve index is notably higher at 98.90, potentially giving him an edge in serving, while his return index of 91.61 indicates strong returning abilities. The difference in mean serve indexes of over 5 points could play a crucial role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Medvedev has demonstrated dominance, winning his last three matches convincingly without dropping a set. His latest victory against Jesper de Jong at the Australian Open showcases his capacity to perform under pressure. Conversely, Halys's form is more mixed; while he won his last match against Alejandro Tabilo, he faced a setback against Tomas Machac in the previous round, losing in straight sets. This inconsistency may hinder his chances against a player of Medvedev’s caliber.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.3 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 19.51 aces, a reflection of the players' serving capabilities on hard courts. The surface typically fosters a balanced number of aces, favoring both powerful servers and adept returners. Medvedev's solid mean serve index suggests he could contribute significantly to the predicted aces, while the expected double faults of 5.72 may reflect both players' willingness to take risks on their serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.5 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev’s superior ranking, form, and consistent performance provide him with a notable advantage over Quentin Halys in this match. One key factor to monitor will be Medvedev's ability to manage pressure during critical points, which could determine the match's outcome.

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