Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
80%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #99
20%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #11 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-24)

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current Rank: #99 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #158 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #146 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #138 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #163 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 47.8
ELO Rating: 2341.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1991.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 66.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 74.0
Return Rating: 53.3

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 56.0
ELO Rating: 517.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 71.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Dubai 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-2) hard Doha 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Doha 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Stan Wawrinka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Hassan (2-0) hard Dubai 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thijs Boogaard (2-0) hard Rotterdam 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Montpellier 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 at the Dubai 500-level event in the U.A.E. is on hard courts and pits Daniil Medvedev against Stan Wawrinka. The model favors Medvedev to win (80.41% vs 19.59%) with a predicted total of about 23.06 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Medvedev arrives ranked 11 with a strong Elo (2341.63) and a form index of 47.8; his surface strength index (12.28) and mean serve index (73.98) are solid while his mean return index (53.31) is moderate. He has accumulated 66 minutes on court in the event, indicating manageable fatigue. Wawrinka, ranked 99 with a much lower Elo (517.22) but a higher form index (55.99), shows exceptional serving and returning metrics: mean serve index 97.14 and mean return index 89.53. The differences in serve (≈23 points) and return (≈36 points) between the two are large and notable, suggesting Wawrinka’s tools remain dangerous despite ranking and match minutes (71 on court) slightly higher than Medvedev’s. Across their last three matches in the data, Medvedev has two recent wins at hard-court events in Dubai and Doha and one loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Doha, with match durations around 66–76 minutes. Wawrinka’s recent slate shows two wins (including his Dubai opener) and a straight-sets loss to Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam; his matches have ranged longer, up to 82 minutes, indicating competitive, often physical outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 10.06 total and the predicted double faults are roughly 5.63. On medium-paced hard courts, expected aces are moderate — the predicted aces value reflects that balance. Given Wawrinka’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive much of the predicted ace count, while Medvedev’s return skills and consistency could limit some free points; this also shapes the expected double faults number.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s edge comes from higher Elo, consistent recent results, and better situational footing in this draw, which translate into the modeled 80% probability. The key factor to watch is how effectively Wawrinka’s powerful serve produces free points and whether Medvedev can neutralize it with returns and baseline control.

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