Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Nicolas Jarry vs Dino Prizmic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Nicolas Jarry

Rank: #155
47%
VS

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #120
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Dino Prizmic

Ranking Trends

Nicolas Jarry

  • Current Rank: #155 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #121 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #102 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #149 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2025-02-24)

Dino Prizmic

  • Current Rank: #120 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #127 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #124 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #248 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #393 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Nicolas Jarry

Form Index: 16.1
ELO Rating: 435.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 3.3
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 71.8
Return Rating: 18.9

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 59.0
ELO Rating: 487.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 226.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Nicolas Jarry
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (1-2) clay Rio 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Winston Salem 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (1-2) hard Cincinnati 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 145 min

Dino Prizmic
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-1) clay Santiago 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) clay Santiago 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francesco Passaro (0-2) clay Rio 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Rio 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) clay Rio 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolas Jarry
vs
0
Dino Prizmic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Santiago, Chile, round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250-level event, Dino Prizmic is narrowly favored to beat Nicolas Jarry. The model projects Prizmic to win with a 52.67% probability versus 47.33% for Jarry, and expects about 24.22 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Nicolas Jarry (rank 155) arrives with a low form index (16.08) and an Elo of 435.29, and shows no tournament fatigue (0 minutes). His surface strength index on clay is modest (3.31) and his mean serve index is 71.81. Dino Prizmic (rank 120) has a considerably stronger form index (58.96) and a higher Elo (487.33), but carries 226 minutes of fatigue from earlier rounds. Prizmic’s surface strength on clay is slightly higher (5.14). The mean serve index gap is substantial (Prizmic 95.10 vs Jarry 71.81), and the mean return gap is also large (Prizmic 90.63 vs Jarry 18.92), both differences likely to shape service and return dynamics. Recent form trends underline the contrast: Jarry has lost his last three matches (including back-to-back long matches on clay and hard courts), often in straight or extended defeats, suggesting confidence and match sharpness are low. Prizmic has won his last two matches in Santiago on clay (including a three-set win over Hugo Dellien) after a loss in Rio, demonstrating steady performance at this venue despite accumulated minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.35 total, while the predicted double faults sit at 3.91. On clay, aces tend to be suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, so the expected ace figure is tempered by conditions. Given Prizmic’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to drive most of the aces, which lifts the predicted aces figure; the expected double faults could rise if longer rallies and fatigue affect serving reliability.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Prizmic’s superior serve and return metrics, plus stronger recent form in Santiago, give him a slight edge despite fatigue. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Jarry neutralizes Prizmic’s serve return advantage early in rallies.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel