Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

James Duckworth vs Eliot Spizzirri: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

James Duckworth

Rank: #86
31%
VS

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #71
69%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Eliot Spizzirri

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 738.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.9
Serve Rating: 79.9
Return Rating: 50.4

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 65.6
ELO Rating: 887.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 5.4
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

James Duckworth

  • Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Brisbane 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Brisbane 89 min

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Auckland 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
0
Eliot Spizzirri
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash in Dallas, TX is on hard courts at a 500-level event. Eliot Spizzirri is the favorite, projected to win with a 69.10% probability versus James Duckworth’s 30.90%, and the model expects about 23.19 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Duckworth (rank 86) arrives with an Elo of 738.7 and a form index of 33.11; his surface strength index is 5.17 and cumulative tournament fatigue is 0.0 minutes. Spizzirri (rank 71) has a considerably higher Elo at 887.28 and a stronger recent form index of 65.64; his surface strength index is 7.99 and he also shows zero fatigue. The Elo and form gaps favor Spizzirri as the steadier performer coming into Dallas. Serve and return profiles show a clear imbalance: Spizzirri’s mean serve index (96.01) comfortably exceeds Duckworth’s (79.91) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (89.90) is far higher than Duckworth’s (50.44), a difference that also exceeds 5 points. These deltas point to Spizzirri being superior on both first-strike and counterpunch aspects of play on hard courts. Surface strength indexes are both low and closer together, so neither player gains a major surface-specific advantage beyond their serve/return skills. Recent form: Duckworth is 1-2 in his last three matches (win over Dino Prizmic, losses to Tomas Machac and Jannik Sinner). Spizzirri is 2-1 (wins over Joao Fonseca and Yibing Wu, loss to Jannik Sinner), showing more consistency through that stretch.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 22.19 total, with a double faults prediction of 5.61 expected double faults overall. Hard courts normally produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay, and the predicted aces reflect that balance. Given Spizzirri’s significantly higher serve rating, many of the predicted aces are likely to come from him, while double faults should remain relatively low.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.2 Most likely: 22 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Spizzirri’s higher Elo, stronger recent form and pronounced serve/return advantages give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how Duckworth handles Spizzirri’s serve — breaking serve early would be Duckworth’s most direct path to keeping the match competitive.

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