Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
61%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
39%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 107.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.7
Clay: 30.0
Grass: 31.1
Serve Rating: 81.1
Return Rating: 37.0

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 1214.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 247.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 92.9

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Last Match: vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (2-0) hard Paris 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (2-0) hard Paris 78 min

Arthur Fils

  • Last Match: vs Ugo Blanchet (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Montpellier 152 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Toronto 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Arthur Fils meet in the Montpellier quarterfinals on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event in France. The model favors Felix Auger-Aliassime to progress (60.77% win probability) over Arthur Fils (39.23%), with a predicted total of about 23.84 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime arrives ranked No. 8 with an Elo of ~4062, a form index of 42.26 and cumulative tournament court time of 107 minutes. His surface strength is 26.72 and his mean serve index is 81.12 versus a mean return index of 36.99. Fils is ranked 42 with an Elo near 1215, a higher form index of 59.72 but substantially more fatigue at 247 minutes. His surface strength sits at 12.19 while his mean serve index (97.24) and mean return index (92.94) are both markedly higher than Auger-Aliassime’s — differences large enough to note and likely to shape key exchanges. Recent results show Auger-Aliassime won his last match in Montpellier in straight sets over Stan Wawrinka but had earlier exits at the Australian Open and Paris. Fils has been sharper through this event, winning two matches in Montpellier (including a longer 152-minute encounter) after a three-set loss to Jiri Lehecka in Toronto. The contrast is clear: Auger-Aliassime offers higher ranking and Elo consistency, while Fils brings stronger recent form and far superior serve and return indices, albeit with heavier minutes already logged.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest: predicted aces are 8.89 for the match, reflecting a hard surface that produces a balanced number of outright serves. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 6.37; serve placement and fatigue could push that number. Given Fils’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while accumulated minutes may inflate the double faults for either player.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s edge comes from a superior ranking and Elo advantage combined with fresher legs and solid serving. The match will turn on whether Fils’s elite serve and return metrics can overcome his fatigue and Auger-Aliassime’s overall consistency; Fils’s serving performance is the key factor to watch.

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