Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
52%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #28
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #22 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #26 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #26 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #40 (2025-03-03)

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current Rank: #28 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #17 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #16 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 62.9
ELO Rating: 1577.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 66.8
Return Rating: 53.1

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 67.8
ELO Rating: 1424.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1760.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Indian Wells 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Acapulco 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Acapulco 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Acapulco 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Acapulco 109 min

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Acapulco 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) hard Acapulco 171 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Acapulco 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Acapulco 138 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard, Masters 1000) in the round of 32, Flavio Cobolli is narrowly favored to upset Frances Tiafoe. The model projects Cobolli to win with a 51.96% probability versus 48.04% for Tiafoe, and expects a relatively tight match of about 23.16 total games.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with a considerably higher Elo (1577.68) compared with Tiafoe (rank 28, Elo 1424.75). Cobolli’s form index is 62.87 to Tiafoe’s 67.77, and he carries more cumulative fatigue at Indian Wells (117 minutes on court versus Tiafoe’s 83). Surface strength indices are modest for both (Cobolli 7.77, Tiafoe 10.37) on this medium-paced hard court. There is a notable serving gap: Tiafoe’s mean serve index (96.95) exceeds Cobolli’s (66.79) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.16) is also substantially higher than Cobolli’s (53.11), so expect disparities in serve-dominated moments and return pressure. Recent form paints two in-form players: Cobolli has won his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory over Tiafoe in Acapulco and a three-set win over Miomir Kecmanovic at Indian Wells. Tiafoe has also been productive—beating Jenson Brooksby in Indian Wells and Brandon Nakashima in Acapulco, though he dropped the Acapulco meeting with Cobolli. Match lengths suggest Cobolli has been tested in longer encounters (several 2–3 set battles) while Tiafoe’s most recent win at Indian Wells was comparatively brief.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: the predicted aces total is 8.89, while the expected double faults total is 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court, that aligns with a balance between service winners and returns; hard courts typically produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay. Given Tiafoe’s markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to supply a larger share of the predicted aces, which will factor heavily into game-turning service holds. The double faults prediction suggests both players may be under pressure on serve at critical moments.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge comes from his superior ranking and Elo plus recent wins, including a prior victory over Tiafoe, keeping this a coin-flip affair. Watch Tiafoe’s serve and return firepower as the decisive factor: if his serving delivers the predicted aces, the match could swing in his favor despite Cobolli’s slight statistical advantage.

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