Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Dino Prizmic vs Francesco Passaro: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #122
46%
VS

Francesco Passaro

Rank: #159
54%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Francesco Passaro

Ranking Trends

Dino Prizmic

  • Current Rank: #122 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #122 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #124 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #244 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #370 (2025-02-17)

Francesco Passaro

  • Current Rank: #159 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #128 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #121 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #140 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #89 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 51.0
ELO Rating: 488.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1522.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 172.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.1
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 35.9
Return Rating: 50.8

Francesco Passaro

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 431.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 206.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.0
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Dino Prizmic
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Rio 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) clay Rio 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gustavo Heide (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Francesco Passaro
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Vilius Gaubas (0-2) clay Rio 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Elmer Moller (2-0) clay Rio 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 154 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Cecchinato (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Kicker (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dino Prizmic
vs
0
Francesco Passaro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay-court match in Rio, Brazil, at a 500-level event pits Dino Prizmic against Francesco Passaro. The model favors Francesco Passaro (54.35%) over Dino Prizmic (45.65%), with a projected total of about 22.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Prizmic (rank 122) enters with a stronger Elo (488.56) and a higher form index (50.97) than Passaro (rank 159, Elo 431.89, form 46.90). Prizmic’s surface strength index is 4.05 versus Passaro’s 5.08; both are modest on clay. Fatigue is notable: Prizmic has 172 minutes on court so far in the tournament, while Passaro has 206 minutes, which could influence later-game consistency. There is a large gap in serving and returning profiles: Passaro’s mean serve index (96.38) far exceeds Prizmic’s (35.93), and Passaro’s mean return index (89.92) similarly outstrips Prizmic’s (50.77), differences that are likely to shape service games and break opportunities. Recent form shows Prizmic winning two straight in Rio (straight-set victories over Tomas Barrios Vera and Daniel Galan) after a five-set loss at the Australian Open. Passaro is more up-and-down: a recent loss in Rio to Vilius Gaubas, a prior win over Elmer Moller in Rio, and a three-set loss in Buenos Aires. Prizmic’s two clean wins on site suggest comfort on these courts; Passaro’s volatile results and higher minutes indicate both capability and potential wear.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is about 22.19 total; predicted aces skew toward Passaro given his much higher serve index, which should increase his share of that total despite clay’s dampening effect. Double faults prediction sits at 5.61 expected double faults for the match; the slower surface and accumulated fatigue make double faults more likely as rallies extend and concentration wanes.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.2 Most likely: 22 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Passaro’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics that outweigh slightly lower Elo and higher fatigue in the model. The key factor to watch is whether Passaro’s serving firepower translates on slow clay and whether fatigue affects his service consistency.

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