Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Francisco Cerundolo vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
65%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #97
35%
Expected Total Games: 21.6
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #19 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #21 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #23 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2025-02-10)

Vit Kopriva

  • Current Rank: #97 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #102 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #81 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #92 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #127 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 65.5
ELO Rating: 2070.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1672.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 84.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 75.2
Return Rating: 84.0

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 694.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 241.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (0-1) clay Buenos Aires 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Vit Kopriva
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) hard Auckland 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Buenos Aires (clay, 250-level event) pits No. 19 Francisco Cerundolo against No. 97 Vit Kopriva. The model favors Cerundolo (64.65% chance) over Kopriva (35.35%), with an expected total of about 21.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives with a substantially higher ranking (19) and a much stronger Elo (2070.66) than Kopriva (rank 97, Elo 694.13). His form index (65.46) also edges Kopriva’s (55.44). Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Cerundolo has logged 84 minutes in the event so far versus Kopriva’s 241 minutes, which could matter on demanding clay. Both players report low surface strength indices, but Cerundolo’s (13.28) is modestly higher than Kopriva’s (7.00). Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Kopriva’s mean serve index (96.70) is much higher than Cerundolo’s (75.23), a difference greater than 5 points and likely to shape service holds and ace potential. Kopriva also posts a superior mean return index (93.46) compared with Cerundolo (84.02), another difference above 5 points that suggests strong counterpunching from both sides. Over their last three matches, Cerundolo has a recent win in Buenos Aires (84 minutes) plus mixed results at the Australian swing—a standout victory over Rublev and a loss to Zverev. Kopriva has built momentum in Buenos Aires with wins over Berrettini (94 minutes) and Barrena (147 minutes) after a straight-sets loss at the Australian event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.6 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 16.86 total; the predicted aces lean on Kopriva’s very high serve index. The double faults prediction sits at approximately 5.74 expected double faults for the match. On clay, slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce ace frequency but increased rally length and fatigue can raise double faults, so the expected aces and expected double faults reflect those opposing forces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher rank, stronger Elo and superior form index — combined with being markedly fresher — give him the projected edge. The key factor to watch will be how Cerundolo handles Kopriva’s powerful serve and whether Kopriva’s accumulated minutes produce late-match lapses.

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