Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #60
46%
VS

Gael Monfils

Rank: #170
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Gael Monfils

Ranking Trends

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current Rank: #60 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #57 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #61 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #69 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2025-02-24)

Gael Monfils

  • Current Rank: #170 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #68 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #49 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #42 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #40 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 37.0
ELO Rating: 752.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 70.5
Return Rating: 64.8

Gael Monfils

Form Index: 5.8
ELO Rating: 700.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (0-2) clay Rio 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (1-1) clay Rio 159 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Dellien (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Gael Monfils
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dane Sweeny (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Chengdu 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (1-2) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Washington 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Damir Dzumhur
vs
0
Gael Monfils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. The model favors Gael Monfils to win with a 53.57% probability, while Damir Dzumhur is given a 46.43% chance; the match is projected to contain about 23.13 games in total.

Match Analysis

Dzumhur arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 60) with an Elo of 752.76 and a form index of 36.99; his surface strength index on hard courts is 5.45 and cumulative fatigue is zero. Monfils is ranked 170 with an Elo of 700.89 and a much lower form index of 5.85, but also reports zero fatigue and a slightly higher surface strength index of 7.68. There is a marked difference in serving and returning: Monfils’s mean serve index (97.42) exceeds Dzumhur’s (70.46) by about 27 points, and his mean return index (89.64) exceeds Dzumhur’s (64.81) by roughly 25 points—both gaps are significant and likely to shape key moments. Over the last three matches Dzumhur has one win (against Pedro Martinez) and two losses, all on clay, with varied match lengths including a 159-minute contest. Monfils’s last three recorded matches on hard courts and elsewhere show three defeats, though he took a set in each outing; his most recent was a long 174-minute match at the Australian Open. These recent results point to match-readiness questions for both players, but the statistical edge in serve and return metrics sits with Monfils.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.83 total, with a predicted aces split influenced by Monfils’s substantially higher serve index. On medium-paced hard courts, this level of predicted aces is plausible—hard courts typically produce a moderate ace count. The double faults prediction is 5.66 expected double faults for the match; Monfils’s big-serve profile could raise the ace count but also the likelihood of some free points against him if risk increases.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Monfils’s superior serving and returning indexes provide the model’s edge despite a lower rank and recent form. The key factor to watch is serve effectiveness—if Monfils converts his serve advantage into easy holds, the match will likely stay short and favor him; if Dzumhur can press on return games, the balance will tighten.

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