Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Hugo Dellien: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #62
47%
VS

Hugo Dellien

Rank: #149
53%
Expected Total Games: 21.5
Predicted Winner: Hugo Dellien

Ranking Trends

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current Rank: #62 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #57 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #56 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #69 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2025-02-10)

Hugo Dellien

  • Current Rank: #149 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #125 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #108 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #103 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #108 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 38.0
ELO Rating: 815.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 69.2
Return Rating: 57.7

Hugo Dellien

Form Index: 28.3
ELO Rating: 416.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.4
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 92.4

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Adelaide 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) hard Hong Kong 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) hard Paris 76 min

Hugo Dellien
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Monteiro (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Bernard Tomic (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Cincinnati 100 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Damir Dzumhur
vs
0
Hugo Dellien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 clash in Buenos Aires, Argentina is on clay at a 250-level event and projects to be a tight, tactical contest. The model favors Hugo Dellien as the slight favorite (52.73%) over Damir Dzumhur (47.27%), with a predicted total of about 21.5 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets affair with relatively short sets on average.

Match Analysis

Dzumhur arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 62) with a considerably higher Elo (≈816) and a stronger recent form index (≈38) compared with Dellien (rank 149, Elo ≈416, form ≈28). Dzumhur shows a solid mean serve index (~69) and a reasonable return index (~58) and has no cumulative fatigue from this tournament. Dellien, despite the lower ranking and Elo, posts much higher proprietary serve and return scores: mean serve ~96.6 and mean return ~92.4 — differences well over 5 points — indicating he profiles as the more aggressive server/returner in the model. Dellien does carry 143 minutes of court time in this event, which could factor later on clay. Looking at recent matches, Dzumhur is 1–2 across his last three outings with long hard-court matches at the Australian Open and a loss to Francisco Cerundolo. Dellien is 2–1 over his last three, with two straight wins at this Buenos Aires clay event in relatively short matches (69 and 74 minutes), suggesting positive momentum on surface despite earlier hard-court struggles.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.5 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: a predicted aces total of 15.35. Clay’s slower pace tends to reduce ace frequency, which aligns with this predicted aces figure. The expected double faults are low-to-moderate at 3.91; on clay, longer rallies and fatigue can elevate double faults, and Dellien’s high serve index could push the predicted ace count up while also risking a few additional double faults. Overall, the predicted aces and expected double faults balance Dellien’s serving power against the surface constraints.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dellien’s edge in serve and return indices gives him a slight advantage despite Dzumhur’s higher ranking and Elo; recent quick wins on-site reinforce that lean. The key factor to watch is whether Dellien’s court time and fatigue on clay blunt his serving effectiveness late in sets.

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