Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #33
67%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #96
33%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current Rank: #33 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #24 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #44 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #65 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #68 (2025-02-17)

Ignacio Buse

  • Current Rank: #96 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #105 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #136 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #177 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #230 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 35.6
ELO Rating: 1312.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.5
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 64.7
Return Rating: 54.6

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 57.7
ELO Rating: 637.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 162.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Monteiro (2-0) clay Rio 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Paris 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Paris 124 min

Ignacio Buse
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Igor Marcondes (2-1) clay Rio 162 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 154 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-2) hard Stockholm 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clay match in Rio, a 500-level event in Brazil, pits Joao Fonseca against Ignacio Buse. The model favors Joao Fonseca to win (67.19% vs. 32.81%) with a predicted total of about 23.13 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fonseca enters with the clear rankings and Elo advantage (Rank 33 and Elo 1312.27) compared with Buse (Rank 96, Elo 636.98). Fonseca’s form index is lower (35.61) than Buse’s (57.70), but Fonseca has spent less time on court in this event (94 minutes cumulative vs. Buse’s 162), so fatigue favors Fonseca. Surface strength is modest for both on clay; Fonseca’s surface index (11.17) is higher than Buse’s (6.03), giving him a slight edge adapting to the slower, higher-bouncing courts. Serve/return profiles show a big gap: Buse’s mean serve index (95.98) notably exceeds Fonseca’s (64.72), and Buse’s mean return index (90.39) is also much higher than Fonseca’s (54.55). These differences (>5 points) suggest Buse can both hold serve powerfully and generate pressure on return games when fresh. Recent form: Fonseca beat Thiago Monteiro in Rio (straight sets) but lost earlier matches in Buenos Aires and the Australian Open; his last three results are one win and two losses. Buse has two wins and one loss across his last three matches, including a marathon 162-minute win in Rio that contributes to his higher fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 13.22 total, and the predicted aces are likely to be skewed toward Buse given his substantially higher serve index. On clay, however, slower ball speed and higher bounce usually reduce ace counts, so the raw ace advantage may be blunted. The double faults prediction and expected double faults is 4.4 for the match; longer rallies and accumulated fatigue — particularly for Buse after longer recent matches — increase the risk of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s superior ranking, Elo and fresher legs give him the projected edge despite Buse’s strong serve and return metrics. The key factor to watch will be whether Buse’s serving power can overcome his fatigue and Fonseca’s ability to neutralize it on clay.

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