Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jack Pinnington Jones vs Eliot Spizzirri: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jack Pinnington Jones

Rank: #173
50%
VS

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #71
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Jack Pinnington Jones

Ranking Trends

Jack Pinnington Jones

  • Current Rank: #173 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #194 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #193 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #338 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #349 (2025-02-10)

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Current Rank: #71 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #87 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #125 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #121 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #197 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Jack Pinnington Jones

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 442.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1524.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 294.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.1
Clay: 1.6
Grass: 2.6
Serve Rating: 36.0
Return Rating: 22.0

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 64.5
ELO Rating: 898.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 5.4
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Jack Pinnington Jones
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Dallas 53 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) hard Dallas 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Dutra da Silva (2-0) hard Dallas 67 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Beibit Zhukayev (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Eliot Spizzirri
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Dallas 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jack Pinnington Jones
vs
0
Eliot Spizzirri
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 clash in Dallas, TX, at a 500-level hard-court event projects to be a tight matchup between Jack Pinnington Jones and Eliot Spizzirri. The model gives Jack a razor-thin edge: 50.06% vs. 49.94% for Spizzirri, with a predicted total of about 23.27 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the two players present contrasting profiles. Jack (rank 173, Elo 442.66) arrives with a lower form index (51.68) but has logged heavy court time in Dallas (294 minutes of cumulative fatigue) and a modest surface strength reading (1.07). Eliot (rank 71, Elo 898.91) shows stronger form (64.46), far less fatigue (79 minutes) and a higher surface strength (8.08). The mean serve indices diverge dramatically (Jack 35.99 vs. Eliot 96.03) — a difference well over 5 points — as do mean return indices (Jack 21.996 vs. Eliot 89.41), both of which will be decisive factors here. Recent form underscores the contrast in routes to this round. Jack has won his three matches in Dallas, including two straight-set victories and a long three-set win, suggesting solid tournament momentum despite the accumulated minutes. Eliot’s last three matches include a straight-sets win in Dallas, a competitive five-set victory at the Australian Open and a four-set loss to a top opponent; his results show higher peak performance but mixed outcomes against elite opposition.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 12.95 total and the predicted double faults are roughly 4.17. On a medium-paced hard court, this expected ace count is moderate — consistent with a surface that balances power and return opportunities. Given Spizzirri’s substantially higher serve rating, the predicted aces are likely to be concentrated on his side; the double faults prediction remains modest, reflecting typical hard-court behavior and both players’ profiles.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jack’s narrow edge stems from his uninterrupted winning run at this event and the model’s fine margin favoring him, despite Eliot’s superior serve and return metrics. The key factor to watch will be whether Jack can neutralize Spizzirri’s serve and make enough returns to force breaks; if Spizzirri dominates on serve, the balance could swing quickly.

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