Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Alexei Popyrin vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #50
15%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
85%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current Rank: #50 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #54 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #37 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #25 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2025-02-17)

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #2 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 23.8
ELO Rating: 919.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 58.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 77.7
Return Rating: 38.1

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 82.7
ELO Rating: 11372.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2676.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 98.9
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mubarak Shannan Zayid (1-0) hard Doha 58 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Brisbane 114 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Doha 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Doha, Qatar — Round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event; conditions favor a balanced mix of power serving and clean returns. Jannik Sinner is the clear pick to advance: model probability gives Sinner an 84.97% chance of winning versus 15.03% for Alexei Popyrin, with a projected total of about 22.38 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Sinner presents a dominant profile on paper: world No. 2, form index 82.68 and an Elo of 11,372, paired with a surface strength index of 98.87 on hard courts. Popyrin is ranked 50 with a much lower form index (23.81) and an Elo of 919.82; his surface strength index is 6.27. Fatigue values are moderate for both — Popyrin 58 minutes vs Sinner 70 minutes accumulated in the event. The difference in mean serve index is substantial (Sinner 96.76 vs Popyrin 77.68), and the gap in mean return index is large as well (Sinner 91.28 vs Popyrin 38.12), both exceeding the 5-point threshold and likely to shape the contest. Recent runs reinforce the contrast. Popyrin’s last three matches show a first-round Doha win over Mubarak Shannan Zayid and earlier losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime (Rotterdam) and Alexandre Muller (Australian Open), including a long five-seter in Melbourne. Sinner arrives with straight-set wins in Doha and deep runs at the Australian Open, including a competitive five-set match with Novak Djokovic and a dominant victory over Ben Shelton; his recent match lengths suggest resilience in longer encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the fixture sits at about 10.06 total, with a predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve index. The expected double faults are 5.63 for the match in total. Hard courts here are medium-paced with consistent bounce, so the predicted aces reflect a balanced environment — not as high as grass but more than clay. Given Sinner’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive much of the predicted ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s superior form, massive edges in serve and return indices, and high surface strength give him the decisive advantage in this matchup. The key factor to watch: whether Popyrin can hold serve consistently long enough to offset Sinner’s return pressure.

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