Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #89
11%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
89%
Expected Total Games: 36.2
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Player Metrics

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 93.0
ELO Rating: 887.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 4.3
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 57.4
Return Rating: 56.3

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 97.4
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 96.4

Recent Matches

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min

Jannik Sinner

  • Last Match: vs James Duckworth (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) hard Paris 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (1-0) hard Paris 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Paris 69 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Eliot Spizzirri
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2026 Australian Open, Jannik Sinner is set to face Eliot Spizzirri on hard courts in Australia. With Sinner ranked second in the world and boasting an impressive form index, he is the clear favorite with an 89.26% probability of winning, while Spizzirri's chances stand at 10.74%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 36.17 games.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner holds a commanding rank of 2, coupled with a high form index of 97.43, indicating exceptional current performance. His Elo rating of 11500 reflects his status as a top competitor. In contrast, Eliot Spizzirri, ranked 89, has a form index of 93.05, which, while respectable, pales in comparison to Sinner's metrics. Both players have a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes from this tournament, but Sinner's surface strength index of 100 significantly exceeds Spizzirri's 5.72, indicating superior adaptability to hard courts. An important distinction is evident in the mean serve index; Sinner's 97.04 is markedly higher than Spizzirri's 57.43, bridging a gap of over 40 points. Similarly, Sinner's mean return index of 96.41 surpasses Spizzirri's 56.27 by over 40 points as well. This suggests that Sinner's aggressive serving and adept returning will likely dominate the match. Recent performances further reinforce this; Sinner has not dropped a set in his last three matches, while Spizzirri has shown vulnerability, losing a match in Auckland and narrowly winning two others in Melbourne.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.2 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is predicted to feature approximately 13.22 aces, with both players likely contributing to this total. Given the balanced nature of hard courts, which reward both power servers and strong returners, the ace count could reflect Sinner's superior serve index. Expected double faults are estimated at 4.4, with both players needing to maintain their focus and precision to minimize errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Sinner’s extensive advantages in serve and return metrics, along with his current form, provide him with a significant edge in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be Spizzirri’s ability to handle Sinner's powerful serves, which could determine the flow and outcome of the match.

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