Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Joao Fonseca vs Raphael Collignon: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #38
57%
VS

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #71
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current Rank: #38 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #24 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #45 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #65 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #80 (2025-03-03)

Raphael Collignon

  • Current Rank: #71 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #87 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #107 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #84 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 31.6
ELO Rating: 1228.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1547.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.5
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 65.6
Return Rating: 54.3

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 24.7
ELO Rating: 775.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) clay Rio 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Monteiro (2-0) clay Rio 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Paris 110 min

Raphael Collignon
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Adelaide 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-0) hard Brisbane 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) hard Brisbane 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Raphael Collignon
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard courts, Masters 1000), Round of 128 pits No. 38 Joao Fonseca against No. 71 Raphael Collignon. The model favors Fonseca to win (56.87% vs 43.13%) with a relatively short match expected — about 23.34 total games.

Match Analysis

Fonseca arrives with the higher rank (38), a stronger Elo (1228.80) and a better form index (31.60) than Collignon (rank 71, Elo 775.59, form 24.68). Both players report no cumulative tournament fatigue. Their surface strength indices are close and low (Fonseca 9.51, Collignon 8.19), suggesting neither has a pronounced hard-court pedigree in the proprietary measure, but the Elo and ranking difference favors Fonseca as the baseline indicator of consistency and results at tour level. Serve and return profiles tell a contrasting story. Collignon posts substantially higher serve and return indices — mean serve 97.39 versus Fonseca’s 65.59 (difference >5) and mean return 90.58 versus 54.35 (difference >5) — indicating he can both produce free points and put pressure on opponents’ service games. Despite those marks, Collignon’s recent match record is concerning: three straight losses on hard (including a lengthy 174-minute match at the Australian Open). Fonseca’s recent form includes a win over Thiago Monteiro and two close losses on clay; while his clay results don’t translate directly to hard courts, his higher Elo and ranking explain the slight edge in the prediction.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 10.06 for the match with an expected double faults total of 5.63. On medium-paced hard courts, this level of predicted aces is consistent with a balanced surface that rewards both service power and returners; the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect that balance. Given Collignon’s markedly higher serve index, he is likely to drive the bulk of the predicted aces, while Fonseca’s steadier baseline game may keep the double faults in check.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s advantage stems from superior ranking, Elo and slightly better form, countering Collignon’s standout serve/return numbers. The key factor to watch is whether Collignon can convert his serve dominance into enough free points to offset Fonseca’s overall match play and higher-quality results.

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