Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Karen Khachanov vs Nishesh Basavareddy: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #17
71%
VS

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #239
29%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current Rank: #17 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #16 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #25 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2025-01-13)

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current Rank: #239 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #123 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #112 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #107 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #107 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 43.9
ELO Rating: 2214.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 71.8
Return Rating: 63.2

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 88.3
ELO Rating: 464.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 2.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 92.3

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Paris 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) hard Paris 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) hard Vienna 123 min

Nishesh Basavareddy
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Hong Kong 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Nishesh Basavareddy
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 of the Australian Open, Karen Khachanov is set to face off against Nishesh Basavareddy on hard courts in Australia. Given Khachanov's established ranking and performance metrics, he is predicted to win with a probability of 70.78%, while Basavareddy stands at 29.22%. The match is expected to feature approximately 39.35 games, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Karen Khachanov, currently ranked 17, has a form index of 43.87 and an Elo rating of 2214.92. His fatigue level from the current tournament is relatively low at 174 minutes, which suggests he is not overly worn out. With a surface strength index of 10.94 and a mean serve index of 71.79, Khachanov has a solid foundation on hard courts. In contrast, Nishesh Basavareddy, ranked 239, boasts a higher form index of 88.32, indicating he is in excellent form, but his Elo rating of 464.77 suggests he is less experienced at this level. Basavareddy's fatigue is significantly higher at 522 minutes, which could impact his performance. Notably, his mean serve index is 96.74, giving him a substantial advantage in serving ability over Khachanov's serve index. However, Khachanov's return index of 63.18 is lower than Basavareddy's 92.28, highlighting a potential area of vulnerability for Khachanov. In their recent performances, Khachanov has struggled, winning only one out of his last three matches, including a tough 2-3 loss to Michael Mmoh in Hong Kong. On the other hand, Basavareddy has shown promising form, winning all three of his last matches at the Australian Open, including victories over Christopher O'Connell and Sebastian Ofner.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is 19.51, reflecting the serving capabilities of both players, especially given Basavareddy's high mean serve index. The predicted double faults stand at 5.72, which suggests that both players may struggle with consistency under pressure. Given the hard court surface, which typically promotes a balanced number of aces, both players have the opportunity to capitalize on their serve strengths while managing their double faults effectively.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.5 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov's higher ranking and experience at this level give him an edge in this matchup; however, Basavareddy's recent form and serve strength present a unique challenge. A key factor to watch will be how Khachanov handles Basavareddy's powerful serves, especially in critical game moments.

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