Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Mariano Navone vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #77
48%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #21
52%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current Rank: #77 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #72 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #78 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #97 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #64 (2025-02-24)

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #21 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #26 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #34 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #45 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #59 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 29.0
ELO Rating: 728.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 67.7
Return Rating: 80.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 47.2
ELO Rating: 1548.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1634.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.3
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-1) clay Santiago 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Rio 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 63 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Luciano Darderi
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Rio 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clay match in Santiago (ATP 250 level) pits Mariano Navone against Luciano Darderi. The model gives Darderi a narrow edge: Luciano Darderi 51.93% vs Mariano Navone 48.07%, with a predicted total of about 22.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Navone (rank 77) arrives with a form index of 28.99 and an Elo of 728.17. He carries 90 minutes of fatigue from this tournament, a modest clay surface strength index of 7.80, a mean serve index of 67.72 and a strong mean return index of 80.38. Darderi (rank 21) has a higher form index at 47.24 and a far stronger Elo of 1548.05, with no accumulated fatigue in this event, a surface strength index of 12.33, an imposing mean serve index of 97.07 and a mean return index of 87.39. The mean serve index gap (~29 points) is significant and likely to shape many service games; the mean return index gap (~7 points) also favors Darderi on returns. Over their last three matches, Navone is 1–2: a recent win in Santiago (90 minutes, 2–1 in sets) but losses to Francisco Cerundolo (91 minutes) and Camilo Ugo Carabelli (122 minutes). Darderi is 1–2 over his past three, with a clean win over Sebastian Baez (78 minutes) and subsequent defeats to Juan Manuel Cerundolo (137 minutes) and Francisco Cerundolo (96 minutes). Those results show Darderi with higher peak performance measures but mixed recent outcomes; Navone’s results include longer recent court time contributing to his tournament fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces ~10.28 for the match, while the expected double faults are about 3.75. Clay tends to reduce ace numbers due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, which the predicted aces reflect. Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the ace count relative to Navone, while Navone’s accumulated fatigue could push the expected double faults higher.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher serve and return indices, superior Elo and lack of tournament fatigue give him a slight edge in this clay matchup. The key factor to watch is whether Navone’s return quality can neutralize Darderi’s big serve early in rallies and whether Navone’s accumulated minutes affect his serve consistency.

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