Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #39
50%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
50%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #39 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #43 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #33 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2025-01-13)

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #24 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #26 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #46 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #46 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 74.0
ELO Rating: 1290.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1679.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 70.7
Return Rating: 95.3

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 1508.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Auckland 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Auckland 87 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (1-2) hard Auckland 155 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) hard Auckland 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (0-2) hard Paris 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Vienna 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open in 2026 has reached the Round of 64, where Sebastian Baez faces Luciano Darderi on hard courts in Australia. With a close matchup anticipated, the predicted winner is Sebastian Baez, who holds a slight edge with a probability of 50.31% of winning compared to Darderi’s 49.69%. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 36.92.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 39, has a form index of 73.98, indicating solid performance lately, alongside an Elo rating of 1290.57. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is 174 minutes, which could impact his stamina. Notably, Baez has a mean serve index of 70.73 and a mean return index of 95.33, demonstrating his strength in returning serves effectively. In contrast, Luciano Darderi, ranked 24, boasts a higher Elo rating of 1508.12 and a surface strength index of 8.86, reflecting his prowess on hard courts. Darderi's form index is lower at 53.18, suggesting he has been less consistent recently. His mean serve index of 97.36 provides a significant advantage over Baez’s serve metrics, with a difference of more than 5 points. In their recent performances, Baez won his last match against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, although he faced a defeat against Jakub Mensik in Auckland prior to that. Darderi, on the other hand, comes off a strong win against Cristian Garin, having lost only one set in his last three matches, indicating a more positive trend in his recent form. His ability to secure victories, particularly in the last match, may bolster his confidence against Baez.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.28 aces, with both players likely contributing to this count given the hard court surface, which generally supports a balanced number of aces. The expected double faults in the match are approximately 3.75, with both players needing to be cautious with their serves. Darderi's significantly higher mean serve index may lead to a higher ace count, while both players should focus on minimizing double faults to maintain their service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez’s edge in return capabilities and recent match experience may play a crucial role in his performance against Darderi. Key factors to watch include how well Baez can handle Darderi's powerful serve and whether he can capitalize on his return game to break serve opportunities throughout the match.

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