Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #52
45%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #21
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #52 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #45 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #39 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #38 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #31 (2025-02-24)

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #21 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #26 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #34 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #45 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #59 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 1206.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 234.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 70.0
Return Rating: 83.7

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1543.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1643.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-0) clay Santiago 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-1) clay Santiago 153 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (0-2) clay Rio 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 119 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-1) clay Santiago 121 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-1) clay Santiago 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Rio 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
3
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Santiago semifinal on clay — a 250-level event in Chile — Luciano Darderi is narrowly favored over Sebastián Báez. The model gives Darderi a 55.27% chance to win versus 44.73% for Báez, with a predicted total of about 23.25 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Darderi brings the clearer statistical edge: he’s ranked 21 to Báez’s 52, carries a higher Elo (1543.45 vs 1206.03) and a stronger recent form index (60.17 vs 48.30). Darderi has accumulated slightly more court time in Santiago (267 vs 234 minutes), which could matter physically late in rallies on clay. Surface strength indices are both modest (12.36 for Darderi, 7.44 for Báez), indicating neither is an extreme clay specialist by this metric. Serve and return profiles paint an interesting matchup. Darderi’s mean serve index is substantially higher (97.04 vs 69.95), a gap worth noting and likely to influence short-term service hold dynamics. Their mean return indices are closer (87.52 for Darderi, 83.71 for Báez), so breaks may come down to who sustains serve under pressure. Over the last three matches each, both players have taken two wins and one loss at recent clay events: Báez beat Tabilo and Garin (including a lengthy 153-minute match) and fell to Jaime Faria in Rio, while Darderi defeated Pellegrino and Navone but lost to Juan Manuel Cerúndolo in Rio. Both arrive having navigated tough three-setters this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay semi sits at about 8.89 combined, with an expected double faults total near 6.37. Clay’s slower pace typically reduces ace totals and adds pressure that can produce more unforced serving errors, so the predicted aces reflect the surface effect. Given Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces lean toward him producing a larger share, while his and Báez’s accumulated minutes could raise the expected double faults late in rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking, Elo and dominant serve index give him the edge in Santiago, especially on service games where he can shorten points. The key factor to watch is whether Báez can convert his strong return ability into early breaks before Darderi’s serve rhythm settles.

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