Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Sho Shimabukuro vs Marcos Giron: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #144
48%
VS

Marcos Giron

Rank: #59
52%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Marcos Giron

Ranking Trends

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current Rank: #144 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #145 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #201 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #189 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #195 (2025-02-17)

Marcos Giron

  • Current Rank: #59 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #66 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #55 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #43 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #52 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 419.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 3.5
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 63.1
Return Rating: 61.7

Marcos Giron

Form Index: 25.3
ELO Rating: 1014.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 8.9
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Delray Beach 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Willwerth (2-0) hard Delray Beach 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-2) hard Dallas 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Bernard Tomic (2-0) hard Dallas 61 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (1-0) hard Dallas 61 min

Marcos Giron
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Dallas 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) hard Auckland 155 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Auckland 87 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sho Shimabukuro
vs
0
Marcos Giron
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Delray Beach, FL — Round of 32 on hard courts at an atp_250-level event sees Sho Shimabukuro face Marcos Giron. The model favors Giron to win (52.20% vs 47.80% for Shimabukuro) with an expected total of about 23.3 games in the match, suggesting a competitive two-set encounter is most likely.

Match Analysis

Shimabukuro (rank 144) arrives with a stronger recent form index (52.36) than Giron (25.31), and has accumulated 170 minutes on court this tournament, which indicates match rhythm but some fatigue. His Elo (419.55) and surface strength index (4.41) are substantially lower than Giron’s, reflecting a player still rising through the ranks. Shimabukuro’s mean serve (63.06) and return (61.71) indices show balanced all-court ability but without standout weapons. Giron (rank 59) carries a much higher Elo (1014.40) and a higher surface strength index (8.57). He shows elite serve and return metrics for this matchup: mean serve index 97.61 and mean return index 90.51 — both differences exceed 5 points versus Shimabukuro and are therefore notable advantages. Giron has no fatigue minutes logged from this event. Over the last three matches, Shimabukuro won two straight at Delray Beach (both 2-0) and lost a competitive three-setter in Dallas; Giron has three recent losses, including tight matches versus Taylor Fritz and Learner Tien, indicating form struggles despite strong baseline metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.95 total, with expected double faults at 5.02. On a medium-paced hard court that offers consistent bounce, these predicted aces fit the surface profile—fewer than grass but more than clay. Given Giron’s significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while the expected double faults reflect moderate serving risk from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Giron’s edge comes from superior Elo, surface numbers and markedly stronger serve and return indices, despite lower recent form and a string of losses. The key factor to watch is Giron’s serve: if he converts free points and forces short rallies, he should tip the match in his favor.

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