Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Marin Cilic vs Alexei Popyrin: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Marin Cilic

Rank: #49
44%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #47
56%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

Ranking Trends

Marin Cilic

  • Current Rank: #49 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #75 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #59 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #101 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #143 (2025-03-17)

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current Rank: #47 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #54 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #26 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 993.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 70.0
Return Rating: 29.5

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 25.0
ELO Rating: 929.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1660.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Marin Cilic
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Indian Wells 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Delray Beach 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Dallas 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jack Pinnington Jones (2-0) hard Dallas 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Dallas 97 min

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Indian Wells 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Dubai 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mubarak Shannan Zayid (1-0) hard Doha 58 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Marin Cilic
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, FL — Round of 128 on hard courts at a masters_1000 event sees Marin Cilic meet Alexei Popyrin. The model gives the edge to Alexei Popyrin (55.93% win probability) over Marin Cilic (44.07%), with an expected total of about 24.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cilic arrives ranked 49 with a form index of 34.28 and an Elo of 993.41; Popyrin is close in the rankings at 47 but carries a lower form index (24.96) and an Elo of 929.02. Neither player brings tournament fatigue into this match (0.0 minutes on court). Surface strength is marginally in Popyrin’s favour (8.50 vs Cilic’s 7.50). The serving and returning profiles show a clear gap: Popyrin’s mean serve index (98.09) is substantially higher than Cilic’s (69.98), and his mean return index (87.75) far outstrips Cilic’s (29.55). Those differences point to Popyrin exerting pressure on both service games and return games. Recent form paints a mixed picture. Cilic has struggled over his last three hard-court outings, losing in straight sets at Dallas, Delray Beach and Indian Wells, with long matches against quality opposition. Popyrin’s recent results are more varied: two straight losses in his most recent events at Indian Wells and Dubai were preceded by a win in Dubai over Kamil Majchrzak. The momentum reads slightly against both, but Popyrin’s superior serve/return combination and slightly higher surface index help explain his narrow advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at roughly 8.89 total, while the expected double faults are about 6.37. On hard courts — a medium-paced, consistent-bounce surface — those predicted aces are in line with a match that rewards big serving without reaching grass levels. Given Popyrin’s markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive the predicted aces number and influence the rhythm; that same aggressive serving can also contribute to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Popyrin’s pronounced edge in serve and return metrics, coupled with a marginally better surface strength index, is the primary reason he is favored. Watch the effectiveness of Popyrin’s serve and his ability to convert returns into break opportunities — that duel will decide this one.

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