Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Ethan Quinn vs Marin Cilic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #68
63%
VS

Marin Cilic

Rank: #61
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Ethan Quinn

Ranking Trends

Ethan Quinn

  • Current Rank: #68 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #64 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #82 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #114 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #150 (2025-02-10)

Marin Cilic

  • Current Rank: #61 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #76 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #62 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #109 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #195 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 867.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 59.0
Return Rating: 38.4

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 67.7
ELO Rating: 1036.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Trevor Svajda (2-0) hard Dallas 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Adelaide 95 min

Marin Cilic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Dallas 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) hard Hong Kong 81 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ethan Quinn
vs
0
Marin Cilic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Dallas (TX) on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event pits Ethan Quinn against Marin Cilic. The model favors Ethan Quinn to win (62.80% vs 37.20% for Cilic) with a projected total of about 23.45 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Quinn enters ranked 68 with a form index of 59.85 and an Elo of 867.56. His cumulative tournament fatigue is 106 minutes and his surface strength index on hard court is 5.95. Cilic is ranked 61, carries a higher form index of 67.69 and a substantially higher Elo of 1,036.95; his fatigue is 110 minutes and his surface strength index is 10.31. There is a pronounced gap in serving and returning: Cilic’s mean serve index (96.92) and mean return index (88.68) both exceed Quinn’s (serve 59.03, return 38.40) by well over 5 points, indicating Cilic’s clear advantage on both serve potency and return quality. Recent results show Quinn with two wins and one loss across his last three matches: a straight-sets win over Trevor Svajda in Dallas, a straight-sets loss to Jakub Mensik at the Australian Open, and a straight-sets victory over Hubert Hurkacz earlier at the Australian Open. Cilic’s last three include straight-sets wins over Learner Tien (Dallas) and Denis Shapovalov (Australian Open), and a four-set loss to Casper Ruud at the Australian Open. Both players have mixed outcomes but arrive having recorded recent straight-sets victories in this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 12.97 total aces, while the expected double faults are roughly 5.16. On medium-paced hard courts that offer a consistent bounce, the predicted aces reflect a moderate serving environment; predicted aces will likely be influenced heavily by Cilic’s much higher serve index. For double faults prediction, the expected double faults count is modest but could be affected if either player presses on serve under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Quinn is the model pick despite Cilic’s superior serve and return metrics; the prediction likely reflects a combination of form and match-specific factors in the provided data. Watch Cilic’s serve and return efficiency early—how those stats translate into free points will be the decisive factor.

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