Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Jack Pinnington Jones vs Marin Cilic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jack Pinnington Jones

Rank: #173
53%
VS

Marin Cilic

Rank: #61
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Jack Pinnington Jones

Player Metrics

Jack Pinnington Jones

Form Index: 58.7
ELO Rating: 505.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1529.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 466.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.7
Clay: 1.6
Grass: 2.6
Serve Rating: 42.7
Return Rating: 12.9

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 71.4
ELO Rating: 1049.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 207.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Jack Pinnington Jones

  • Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-1) hard Dallas 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Dallas 53 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) hard Dallas 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniel Dutra da Silva (2-0) hard Dallas 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Beibit Zhukayev (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Marin Cilic

  • Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Dallas 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Dallas 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (0-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jack Pinnington Jones
vs
0
Marin Cilic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Dallas, TX — a hard-court, 500-level event — features Jack Pinnington Jones against Marin Cilic. The model gives Jack Pinnington Jones the narrow edge (53.46% vs 46.54%) with a predicted total of about 23.42 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Jack Pinnington Jones (rank 173) arrives with a solid recent run and a form index of 58.7, an Elo of 505.9 and cumulative tournament court time of 466 minutes. His surface strength index is low (1.69) and his mean serve index (42.75) is far below Marin Cilic’s (97.02) — a substantial difference that will shape play. Jack’s mean return index (12.90) is also much lower than Cilic’s (88.08), another notable gap. Marin Cilic (rank 61) carries a higher form index (71.44), a much stronger Elo (1049.05) and lighter fatigue (207 minutes), and his surface strength index (10.39) is higher, though still modest numerically. Looking at recent matches, Jack is unbeaten in three matches at this Dallas event — wins over Eliot Spizzirri (long 172-minute match), Flavio Cobolli (53 minutes) and Patrick Kypson (174 minutes) — showing resilience across varied match lengths. Cilic has also progressed with straight-set wins in Dallas over Ethan Quinn and Learner Tien, after a longer loss earlier in the season at the Australian Open to Casper Ruud. The contrast is clear: Jack’s path here has been gruelling minutes on court, while Cilic has preserved more energy and brings superior serve/return metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modestly high for a hard court, with predicted aces at 10.28 and expected double faults at 3.75. Hard courts typically produce a balanced number of free points; given Cilic’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a large share of the predicted aces. This double faults prediction reflects the small but present risk of serve pressure from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

The model’s narrow pick for Jack Pinnington Jones reflects his tournament momentum and match-win profile, offset by Cilic’s superior serve and higher Elo. The key factor to watch is serve vs. return — Cilic’s serving dominance against Jack’s weaker return will likely decide how close this quarterfinal becomes.

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