Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Barrios Vera vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Barrios Vera

Rank: #114
27%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #58
73%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Ranking Trends

Tomas Barrios Vera

  • Current Rank: #114 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #109 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #135 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #110 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2025-02-17)

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current Rank: #58 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #56 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #52 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #28 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #35 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Tomas Barrios Vera

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 508.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 205.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.2
Clay: 4.0
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 67.0
Return Rating: 83.9

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 916.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 99.5
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Tomas Barrios Vera
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Rio 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Boscardin Dias (2-0) clay Rio 102 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (1-1) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Coria (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 134 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Metz 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Metz 81 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Metz 63 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Barrios Vera
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay matchup in Rio (atp_500 level) pits Tomas Barrios Vera against Matteo Berrettini. The model favors Berrettini: predicted winner Matteo Berrettini 72.72%, Tomas Barrios Vera 27.28%, with an expected total of 23.35 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Matteo Berrettini arrives with a clear edge in ranking (58 vs 114) and Elo (916.25 vs 508.64). His form index (45.01) is modestly higher than Barrios Vera’s (38.85). Fatigue is a notable contrast: Barrios Vera has 205 minutes on court in this event while Berrettini shows 0 minutes, which could matter physically on clay. Both players have low surface strength indices in the provided scale (Barrios Vera 3.99, Berrettini 9.24), indicating limited clay-specific dominance in the available metrics. Serve and return metrics further separate them. Berrettini’s mean serve index (99.52) is substantially higher than Barrios Vera’s (66.98) — a gap of over 30 points — while their mean return indices are closer (88.63 vs 83.93). Recent results are mixed for both: Barrios Vera’s last three on clay read loss (Prizmic, 103 min), a win (Boscardin Dias, 102 min), and a prior loss (Darderi, 82 min). Berrettini’s recent slate shows a straight-sets win over Federico Coria (134 min), and defeats to Vit Kopriva (94 min) and Learner Tien (104 min on hard), indicating some inconsistency but also the capacity for dominant service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.97 total predicted aces, while the double faults prediction is 5.16 expected double faults. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce generally reduce ace frequency but can increase unforced serving errors late in rallies; this aligns with a moderate predicted ace count and a non-trivial expected double faults number. Given Berrettini’s significantly higher serve rating, he should account for a large share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s superior serve profile, higher Elo and better freshness give him the modeled edge on clay in Rio. A key factor to watch is how well Barrios Vera copes with Berrettini’s serve — breaking momentum early will be Barrios Vera’s best path to extend the match.

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