Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Mattia Bellucci vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #110
31%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #14
69%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current Rank: #110 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #65 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #68 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #70 (2025-02-24)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #14 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #29 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 27.1
ELO Rating: 732.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 124.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 50.5

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 65.9
ELO Rating: 2167.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.0
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Acapulco 124 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Auckland 67 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Acapulco 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Dallas 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Dallas 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (2-0) hard Dallas 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at an atp_500 event. The model favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win (68.80%) over Mattia Bellucci (31.20%), with a predicted total of 22.93 games for the match.

Match Analysis

There is a clear ranking and rating gap: Davidovich Fokina is ranked 14 with an Elo of 2167.53, while Bellucci sits at 110 with an Elo of 732.28. Form indexes also diverge (65.90 for Davidovich Fokina vs 27.13 for Bellucci), indicating stronger recent performance for Davidovich Fokina. Fatigue totals in the tournament show Bellucci has logged 124 minutes on court versus 94 for Davidovich Fokina, which may be relevant given the match length data. Surface strength indices are low for both but higher for Davidovich Fokina (13.98 vs 4.30). There is a notable serve gap: mean serve index 97.14 for Davidovich Fokina versus 79.11 for Bellucci (difference >5), and an even larger gap on return (90.05 vs 50.55, difference >5). These disparities point to Davidovich Fokina’s clear edge in both serve potency and return capability. Over their last three matches on hard courts, Bellucci has one win (Acapulco vs Hijikata) and two straight losses prior, while Davidovich Fokina has two wins and one three-set loss (to Shapovalov) in the same sample. Both players have predominantly recent hard-court results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 21.23 total predicted aces, and the double faults prediction is 4.86 expected double faults. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so predicted aces sit between what one would expect on grass and clay; the expected double faults remain modest. Given Davidovich Fokina’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a large share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s higher rank, Elo, form index, and markedly superior serve and return metrics give him the projected advantage. Watch the serve/return battle—if Bellucci can shorten points or pressure Davidovich Fokina’s service games early, it will be the clearest path to an upset.

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