Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #66
59%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #107
41%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 1033.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 75.3
Return Rating: 67.2

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 10.3
ELO Rating: 721.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Dallas 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Dallas 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Montpellier 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Mattia Bellucci

  • Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Auckland 67 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux (2-0) hard Auckland 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Brisbane 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Delray Beach (FL) hosts a hard-court, 250-level event where Miomir Kecmanovic meets Mattia Bellucci in the round of 32. The model favors Kecmanovic to win (59.16% vs 40.84%) with an expected total of about 23.6 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets affair with relatively few breaks.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 66) with a stronger form index (37.37) and a markedly higher Elo (1,033.95) compared with Bellucci (rank 107, form 10.34, Elo 721.50). Both players show similar low surface strength indices on hard (Kecmanovic 6.90, Bellucci 6.49) and neither carries fatigue from prior matches in this tournament. There is a large gap in serve profiles: Bellucci’s mean serve index (98.22) exceeds Kecmanovic’s (75.27) by over 20 points, and Bellucci also posts a substantially higher mean return index (89.94) than Kecmanovic (67.19) — both differences greater than five points and likely to shape key phases. Recent form favors Kecmanovic, who reached the latter stages in Dallas with two wins (Paul, Shimabukuro) before a three-set loss to Ben Shelton; his recent matches were long, showing match toughness. Bellucci has struggled in his last three recorded hard-court matches, losing each in straight sets (to Nakashima, Ruud, Medjedovic) with relatively short durations, indicating he has not converted opportunities at this level recently.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: predicted aces total about 8.33, and the expected double faults sit near 4.88. Hard courts here give a balanced environment where big servers can gain an edge but do not produce the extreme ace totals seen on grass; this supports the predicted aces number. Given Bellucci’s significantly higher serve index, he is the likelier source of a larger share of the predicted aces, though expected double faults may come from both players under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.3 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s higher ranking, stronger recent results and superior overall metrics give him the edge despite Bellucci’s powerful serve and return indices. The key factor to watch is how effectively Bellucci converts free points off serve — if his serve dominance translates into hold percentage, the match could become tighter than the baseline probabilities suggest.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel