Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #84
60%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #63
40%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 1166.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 218.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 76.5
Return Rating: 65.0

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 50.4
ELO Rating: 822.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 183.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 6.4
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 91.9

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) hard Acapulco 155 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Acapulco 63 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Delray Beach 135 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 118 min

Terence Atmane

  • Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (2-1) hard Acapulco 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-0) hard Acapulco 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Delray Beach 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) hard Delray Beach 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Dallas 108 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Acapulco, Mexico (hard court, atp_500 event, 2026 season) pits Miomir Kecmanovic against Terence Atmane. The model favors Kecmanovic to advance with a 59.71% probability versus 40.29% for Atmane, and it forecasts a relatively short match of about 23.09 total games.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic enters ranked 84 with a form index of 51.73 and an Elo of 1166.31; his cumulative fatigue in this event is 218 minutes and his surface strength index is 8.08. Atmane is ranked 63 with a form index of 50.40 and a notably lower Elo of 822.95, carrying 183 minutes of tournament court time and a surface strength index of 7.01. The difference in mean serve index between the two is substantial (Kecmanovic 76.53 vs Atmane 98.37), and the gap in mean return index is also large (Kecmanovic 64.99 vs Atmane 91.91), both exceeding the 5-point threshold and likely to shape patterns of service holds and breaks. Over their last three matches at hard-court events, Kecmanovic has gone 2–1, beating Alexander Zverev in a 155-minute encounter and Tristan Schoolkate in a shorter match, while losing earlier to Learner Tien. Atmane is also 2–1 in his most recent three, with wins over Rafael Jodar and Grigor Dimitrov (straight sets vs Dimitrov) and a loss to Flavio Cobolli. Those recent results show both players handling hard courts well in this stretch, though their playing styles implied by the serve/return indices point to contrasting strengths.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.46 total, while the predicted double faults total is 5.44. On medium-paced hard courts, this level of predicted aces is consistent with a balance between power serving and return play; the expected double faults are moderate. Given Atmane’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which will influence the overall ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s higher Elo and a slightly stronger surface strength and form index give him the modeled edge despite greater fatigue. A decisive factor to watch is Atmane’s high serve and return indices — if his serving holds up, it could tilt the match toward more short service games and more aces.

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