Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Tommy Paul vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #22
69%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #69
31%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current Rank: #22 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #20 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #16 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #12 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2025-02-10)

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current Rank: #69 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #52 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #49 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #47 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 1982.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 14.5
Serve Rating: 58.4
Return Rating: 53.1

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 26.2
ELO Rating: 918.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 124.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.3
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Dallas 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Miomir Kecmanovic
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Dallas 124 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Montpellier 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Adelaide 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) hard Hong Kong 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 in Dallas, TX on indoor hard courts at a 500-level event, Tommy Paul is favored to advance against Miomir Kecmanovic. The model projects Paul to win with a 69.36% probability versus 30.64% for Kecmanovic, and forecasts an expected total of about 23.42 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 22) with a substantially stronger Elo (1982.7) and a strong form index (65.8). He has accumulated 142 minutes on court in this tournament, which is noticeable fatigue but comes off a straight-sets win over Jenson Brooksby after a long match versus Alcaraz at the Australian Open. His surface strength (13.88) and balanced serve/return indices (serve 58.41, return 53.12) point to an all-court baseline game that performs well on medium-paced hard courts. Miomir Kecmanovic is ranked 69th with a much lower Elo (918.0) and a weak form index (26.16). He has 124 minutes in this event and a modest surface strength (8.28). The striking statistical gaps are in serving and returning: Kecmanovic’s mean serve index (97.65) and mean return index (91.68) exceed Paul’s by more than 5 points—by large margins—indicating Kecmanovic can produce many free points and is effective on both wings when on song. Over the last three matches Paul has two wins and a heavy loss to Alcaraz; Kecmanovic has one win in Dallas and two recent losses, showing less consistent results overall.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.28 total, while the expected double faults sit at 3.75. Given the medium-paced hard surface, predicted aces are moderate: the court rewards servers but is not as forgiving as grass. Because Kecmanovic’s mean serve index is significantly higher than Paul’s, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which will influence the match’s short points and scoring tempo. The double faults prediction suggests limited but potentially decisive service errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s higher ranking, superior Elo and recent form provide the edge in this matchup despite Kecmanovic’s powerful serve metrics. The critical factor to watch is how often Kecmanovic can convert his serve advantage into easy holds; if Paul neutralizes those serves with returns, the prediction favors Paul.

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