Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #75
32%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #4
68%
Expected Total Games: 37.9
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Ranking Trends

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current Rank: #75 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #82 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #103 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #88 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #84 (2025-01-13)

Novak Djokovic

  • Current Rank: #4 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #5 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #6 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #7 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 84.8
ELO Rating: 889.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 74.2
Return Rating: 79.4

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 94.5
ELO Rating: 4780.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1891.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.0
Clay: 40.1
Grass: 41.6
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Hong Kong 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Paris 94 min

Novak Djokovic
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Maestrelli (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Shanghai 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Shanghai 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Shanghai 161 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Australian Open, Botic van de Zandschulp faces off against the seasoned Novak Djokovic in an exciting hard court matchup. The predicted winner is Novak Djokovic, with a probability of victory sitting at 68.45%, while van de Zandschulp has a 31.55% chance of advancing. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.88.

Match Analysis

Novak Djokovic is currently ranked 4th, boasting a form index of 94.47 and an impressive Elo rating of 4780. His surface strength index of 38.03 highlights his capabilities on hard courts. In contrast, Botic van de Zandschulp, ranked 75th, has a lower form index of 84.79 and an Elo rating of 889.07. Both players share equal fatigue levels from their recent matches, at 348 minutes. Notably, Djokovic's mean serve index of 95.69 significantly surpasses van de Zandschulp's 74.24, indicating a clear advantage in serving capabilities. Additionally, Djokovic's mean return index of 92.24 greatly exceeds van de Zandschulp's 79.37, reinforcing his prowess in returning serves. In their recent performances, both players have shown solid form, with Djokovic winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set. His most recent victory over Francesco Maestrelli at the Australian Open was convincing, further emphasizing his current dominance. Van de Zandschulp has also performed well, securing victories over Juncheng Shang and Brandon Nakashima, but he suffered a loss to Alexander Bublik in his last match before the tournament, which may impact his confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.9 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 8.89 aces, with Djokovic likely spearheading this count due to his higher mean serve index. On the other hand, both players are anticipated to contribute to the expected 6.37 double faults, which is relatively moderate for hard courts. The medium-paced consistent bounce of the surface will facilitate a balanced ace count, although Djokovic's superior serving skills may lead to a higher total in his favor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic's combination of experience, superior serving, and returning abilities positions him as the favorite in this matchup against Botic van de Zandschulp. A key factor to watch will be Djokovic's serve, particularly how effectively he can maintain pressure on van de Zandschulp's return game throughout the match.

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