Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Semifinals

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #4
11%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
89%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Novak Djokovic

  • Current Rank: #4 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #5 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #6 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #7 (2025-01-13)

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #2 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 98.1
ELO Rating: 4780.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1894.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.0
Clay: 38.1
Grass: 39.6
Serve Rating: 50.9
Return Rating: 44.6

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 99.4
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 95.8

Recent Matches

Novak Djokovic
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Maestrelli (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Shanghai 102 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Novak Djokovic
vs
2
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

As the Australian Open reaches its semifinal stage, the clash between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner promises to be a thrilling encounter on hard courts in Australia. With Sinner currently favored to win, the probability of a Djokovic victory stands at just 10.75%, while Sinner boasts an impressive 89.25% chance of success. The match is expected to feature approximately 36.94 games, highlighting the potential for an exciting contest.

Match Analysis

Novak Djokovic, ranked 4th, carries a form index of 98.07 and an Elo rating of 4780.63. However, he is experiencing notable fatigue with 696 minutes on court in this tournament. His surface strength index of 35.98 indicates a solid but not exceptional performance on hard courts. In contrast, Jannik Sinner, ranked 2nd, showcases remarkable form with a form index of 99.39 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 11500. His fatigue level is also higher at 870 minutes, but he possesses a perfect surface strength index of 100. Sinner's mean serve index of 96.78 greatly surpasses Djokovic's 50.86, reflecting his superior serving capabilities. Furthermore, Sinner's mean return index of 95.83 also outstrips Djokovic's 44.61, indicating he is not only a formidable server but also an exceptional returner. In their recent performances, Djokovic has had a mixed bag; he lost a match after winning two consecutive ones against less challenging opponents. Sinner, on the other hand, has been in dominant form, winning his last three matches in straight sets without dropping a single set. This stark contrast in recent form contributes to Sinner's strong position heading into the semifinal.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to produce around 10.06 aces and 5.63 double faults. Given the hard court surface, we can anticipate a moderate number of aces, as it balances between serving power and return strength. Sinner's significantly higher serve index indicates he may contribute more to the aces prediction, leveraging his strong serving ability. Meanwhile, the expected double faults prediction suggests that both players may have moments of inconsistency, which could impact critical points in the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior form, alongside his exceptional serving and returning prowess, gives him a distinct edge over Novak Djokovic in this semifinal matchup. A key factor to watch will be Sinner’s ability to maintain his serving effectiveness against Djokovic’s returning skills, which could ultimately dictate the match's outcome.

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